METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Lightweight
VS
44%
Poirier
56%
Gaethje
Win Probability
KO/TKO · Heel Kick
Round 3 · 1:54
★ Official Result
Dustin PoirierwinsKO/TKOR3 · 1:54
def. Justin Gaethje · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gaethje
→
Actual result
Poirier wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Poirier at 44% vs Gaethje at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 38 points.
Striking split: Gaethje throws more volume but Poirier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PoirierGaethje
118
Sig. Strikes
128
9.4
Strikes / min (SLpM)
10.2
68%
Strike Accuracy
59%
0 (0%)
Takedowns
1 (17%)
3:00
Control Time
2:39
Poirier
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
70"
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.4
78.2
59.5
Performance Avg
80.4
52
Quality of Victory
90
100
Momentum Score
100
Poirier
Gaethje
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.8
10.0
67%
Strike Accuracy
61%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
71
Head
74
28
Body
31
19
Leg
23
RangeRange
64Distance80
18Clinch24
36Ground24
Poirier
Gaethje
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
0.4
18%
Takedown Accuracy
7%
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
3:00
Control Time (this fight)
2:39
0
Reversals
0
Poirier
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
69%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
61%
7/37 fights
Chin rating based on
6/30 fights
Poirier
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Poirier
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Poirier
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
PoirierGaethje
Strike Zones
Poirier
Attacking
118 landedAbsorbing
128 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
128 landedAbsorbing
118 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (60% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (58% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Poirier
RND
Gaethje
51/71R152/85
46/70R253/89
21/32R323/42
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.4WinLossTrend
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Poirier · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.5Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 527 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Conor McGregorRating 7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 526 · 2032-01
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 525 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 521 · 2031-12
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11
Gaethje · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 529 · 2032-02
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 4KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 528 · 2032-02
L · KO · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.4KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 525 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.4Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 522 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 518 · 2031-12
Fight Videos
Poirier
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Poirier
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
Poirier
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-01
Poirier
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-02
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-02
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-01
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01