★ Championship Bout · Bantamweight
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
Boston, USA
19 Aug 2023
Bantamweight
VS
55%
O'Malley
45%
Sterling
Win Probability
KO/TKO · Punch
Round 2 · 1:40
SO
Sean O'Malley
"Sugar"
18 – 1
5'11"72" reachSouthpaw31 yrsStriker
CFR 65
AS
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
24 – 4
Well-Rounded36 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'7"
CFR 54

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: O'Malley

This is a genuine toss-up — O'Malley at 55% vs Sterling at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

O'Malley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

O'Malley's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sterling has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

O'Malley
Sterling
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'7"
72"
Reach
72"
31+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
O'Malley
Sterling
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.3
54.2
59.5
Performance Avg
54.2
47
Quality of Victory
38
95
Momentum Score
71
O'Malley
Sterling
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
9.9
8.1
66%
Strike Accuracy
61%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
49
Head
41
19
Body
17
13
Leg
13
RangeRange
51Distance30
12Clinch10
18Ground31
O'Malley
Sterling
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
0.0
0%
Takedown Accuracy
0%
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
1:30
Control Time (this fight)
2:35
0
Reversals
0
O'Malley
Sterling
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
50
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/19 fights
Chin rating based on
2/28 fights
O'Malley
Sterling
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
71
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
O'Malley
Sterling
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

O'Malley
Sterling
Striking7.0 / 2.7Volume5.2 / 6.5Grappling1.1 / 3.2Wrestling0.8 / 2.3Submission0.0 / 2.2Pressure6.2 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
O'Malley
Strike Zones
Sterling
O'Malley
Attacking
49HEAD19BODY13LEGS81 landed
Absorbing
41HEAD17BODY13LEGS71 absorbed
Sterling
Attacking
41HEAD17BODY13LEGS71 landed
Absorbing
49HEAD19BODY13LEGS81 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯O'Malley targets the head (60% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Sterling targets the head (58% of attacks) — O'Malley absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

O'Malley
RND
Sterling
51/75R147/75
30/48R224/36

O'Malley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0106.1W2.5L2023-082032-03
WinLossTrend

Sterling · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0103.6L6.5W2023-082032-03
WinLossTrend

O'Malley · Last 2

L · Sub · R1
Aljamain SterlingRating 2.5
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 534 · 2032-03
W · KO · R2
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.1
KO/TKO · Punch
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

Sterling · Last 2

W · Sub · R1
Sean O'MalleyRating 6.5
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 534 · 2032-03
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6
KO/TKO · Punch
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

News & Media

Sean O'Malley · Aljamain Sterling
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