METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Middleweight
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Sydney, Australia
9 Sept 2023
Middleweight
VS
47%
Strickland
53%
Adesanya
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 5 · 5:00
CFR 66
★ Official Result
Sean StricklandwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Israel Adesanya · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Adesanya
→
Actual result
Strickland wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Strickland at 47% vs Adesanya at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Adesanya has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Striking split: Strickland throws more volume but Adesanya connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Strickland's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Adesanya has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
StricklandAdesanya
232
Sig. Strikes
207
9.3
Strikes / min (SLpM)
8.3
61%
Strike Accuracy
71%
1 (13%)
Takedowns
0 (0%)
5:01
Control Time
3:25
Strickland
Adesanya
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
76"
Reach
+80"
35+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Strickland
Adesanya
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.7
65.8
50.9
Performance Avg
64.5
37
Quality of Victory
62
100
Momentum Score
100
Strickland
Adesanya
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.8
8.5
62%
Strike Accuracy
69%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
135
Head
127
57
Body
51
40
Leg
29
RangeRange
146Distance137
39Clinch29
47Ground41
Strickland
Adesanya
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.4
0.0
10%
Takedown Accuracy
0%
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
5:01
Control Time (this fight)
3:25
0
Reversals
0
Strickland
Adesanya
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
18
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
88%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
74%
5/34 fights
Chin rating based on
5/27 fights
Strickland
Adesanya
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
Strickland
Adesanya
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
39%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Strickland
Adesanya
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
StricklandAdesanya
Strike Zones
Strickland
Attacking
232 landedAbsorbing
207 absorbedAdesanya
Attacking
207 landedAbsorbing
232 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Strickland targets the head (58% of attacks) — Adesanya absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Adesanya targets the head (61% of attacks) — Strickland absorbs 61% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Strickland
RND
Adesanya
53/88R144/62
51/80R241/59
48/77R341/56
36/64R444/64
44/71R537/52
Strickland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Adesanya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Strickland · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Robert WhittakerRating 6.3KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 514 · 2031-11
L · KO · R1
Dricus Du PlessisRating 3.4KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 513 · 2031-11
W · Dec · R3
Israel AdesanyaRating 6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 510 · 2031-10
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision · Split
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R5
Israel AdesanyaRating 6Decision · Unanimous
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Adesanya · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 512 · 2031-10
L · KO · R2
Dricus Du PlessisRating 4.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 511 · 2031-10
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 510 · 2031-10
L · Sub · R4
Dricus Du PlessisRating 5.3Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya 2 · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Fight Videos
Strickland
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2031-11
Strickland
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2031-11
Strickland
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-10
Strickland
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2024-01
Adesanya
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-10
Adesanya
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2031-10
Adesanya
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-10
Adesanya
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2024-08