METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
Abu Dhabi, UAE
21 Oct 2023
Lightweight
VS
54%
Makhachev
46%
Volkanovski
Win Probability
KO/TKO · Punches
Round 1 · 3:06
★ Official Result
Islam MakhachevwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:06
def. Alexander Volkanovski · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Makhachev
→
Actual result
Makhachev wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Makhachev at 54% vs Volkanovski at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Volkanovski has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Volkanovski has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MakhachevVolkanovski
18
Sig. Strikes
14
7.2
Strikes / min (SLpM)
5.6
64%
Strike Accuracy
64%
0:40
Control Time
0:25
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'6"
70"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.6
64.0
70.0
Performance Avg
59.8
54
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
100
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.8
9.6
66%
Strike Accuracy
66%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
8
4
Body
3
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance7
3Clinch2
8Ground5
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
1.2
21%
Takedown Accuracy
17%
0.8
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:40
Control Time (this fight)
0:25
0
Reversals
0
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
54
Never stopped
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
93%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
73%
7/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/30 fights
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
65%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
MakhachevVolkanovski
Strike Zones
Makhachev
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedVolkanovski
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Makhachev targets the head (56% of attacks) — Volkanovski absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Volkanovski targets the head (57% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Makhachev
RND
Volkanovski
18/28R114/22
Makhachev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.9WinLossTrend
Volkanovski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Makhachev · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 6.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 520 · 2031-12
W · Sub · R3
Conor McGregorRating 8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 519 · 2031-12
W · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 518 · 2031-12
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.9Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11
W · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 516 · 2031-11
Volkanovski · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 7.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 533 · 2032-03
L · KO · R3
Max HollowayRating 5.2KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 531 · 2032-03
L · KO · R2
Ilia TopuriaRating 4.5KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
Fight Videos
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2031-12
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2031-11
Volkanovski
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-03
Volkanovski
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-03
Volkanovski
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2024-02
Volkanovski
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2023-10