★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
Abu Dhabi, UAE
21 Oct 2023
Lightweight
VS
54%
Makhachev
46%
Volkanovski
Win Probability
KO/TKO · Punches
Round 1 · 3:06
IM
Islam Makhachev
26 – 1
5'10"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs7-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 75
AV
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
26 – 4
Well-Rounded4-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'6"
CFR 64

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Makhachev

This is a genuine toss-up — Makhachev at 54% vs Volkanovski at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Volkanovski has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Volkanovski has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Makhachev
Volkanovski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'6"
70"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.6
64.0
70.0
Performance Avg
59.8
54
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
100
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
7.8
9.6
66%
Strike Accuracy
66%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
8
4
Body
3
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance7
3Clinch2
8Ground5
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.3
1.2
21%
Takedown Accuracy
17%
0.8
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:40
Control Time (this fight)
0:25
0
Reversals
0
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
54
Never stopped
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
93%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
73%
7/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/30 fights
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Makhachev
Volkanovski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
65%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev
Volkanovski
Striking3.6 / 5.0Volume4.7 / 7.0Grappling4.6 / 1.6Wrestling3.2 / 1.1Submission4.7 / 0.0Pressure7.4 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Makhachev
Strike Zones
Volkanovski
Makhachev
Attacking
10HEAD4BODY4LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD3BODY3LEGS14 absorbed
Volkanovski
Attacking
8HEAD3BODY3LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD4BODY4LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Makhachev targets the head (56% of attacks) — Volkanovski absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Volkanovski targets the head (57% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev
RND
Volkanovski
18/28R114/22

Makhachev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.9
0106.5W6.9W6.9W6.9W6.7W8.0W6.5W2023-102031-112031-122031-12
WinLossTrend

Volkanovski · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0103.5L4.5L5.2L7.9L2023-102024-022032-032032-03
WinLossTrend

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 6.5
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 520 · 2031-12
W · Sub · R3
Conor McGregorRating 8
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 519 · 2031-12
W · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 518 · 2031-12
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.9
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11
W · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 516 · 2031-11

Volkanovski · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 7.9
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 533 · 2032-03
L · KO · R3
Max HollowayRating 5.2
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 531 · 2032-03
L · KO · R2
Ilia TopuriaRating 4.5
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Alexander Volkanovski
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