★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
New York, USA
11 Nov 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
47%
Prochazka
53%
Pereira
Win Probability
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
Round 3 · 4:13
JP
Jiri Prochazka
"Denisa"
8 – 3
6'3"80" reachSouthpaw33 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 68
AP
Alex Pereira
"Poatan"
12 – 2
Knockout Artist38 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'4"
CFR 77

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pereira

This is a genuine toss-up — Prochazka at 47% vs Pereira at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pereira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Striking split: Prochazka throws more volume but Pereira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Prochazka's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Prochazka
Pereira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
80"
Reach
80"
33+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Prochazka
Pereira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.4
76.9
60.9
Performance Avg
77.0
57
Quality of Victory
73
98
Momentum Score
78
Prochazka
Pereira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
9.6
9.4
62%
Strike Accuracy
66%
9.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
68
Head
62
29
Body
25
21
Leg
17
RangeRange
69Distance69
21Clinch17
28Ground18
Prochazka
Pereira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.5
0.0
11%
Takedown Accuracy
0%
1.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
2:20
Control Time (this fight)
1:30
0
Reversals
0
Prochazka
Pereira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
76
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
98%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
90%
5/11 fights
Chin rating based on
7/14 fights
Prochazka
Pereira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
78
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Prochazka
Pereira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Prochazka
Pereira
Striking9.7 / 9.7Volume1.3 / 3.3Grappling1.3 / 0.5Wrestling0.9 / 0.3Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure9.0 / 8.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.7
1.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Prochazka
Strike Zones
Pereira
Prochazka
Attacking
68HEAD29BODY21LEGS118 landed
Absorbing
62HEAD25BODY17LEGS104 absorbed
Pereira
Attacking
62HEAD25BODY17LEGS104 landed
Absorbing
68HEAD29BODY21LEGS118 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Prochazka targets the head (58% of attacks) — Pereira absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Pereira targets the head (60% of attacks) — Prochazka absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Prochazka
RND
Pereira
44/75R145/69
53/81R243/65
21/30R316/24

Prochazka · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.1
0107.3W3.6L6.6W6.1L7.0L2023-112024-062031-082031-092031-09
WinLossTrend

Pereira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.2
0104.4L6.5W6.7W6.5W7.2L6.1L6.0W2023-112024-062031-082031-09
WinLossTrend

Prochazka · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 508 · 2031-09
L · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 507 · 2031-09
W · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 6.6
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 504 · 2031-08
L · KO · R1
Alex PereiraRating 3.6
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.3
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Pereira · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Magomed AnkalaevRating 6
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 506 · 2031-09
L · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 505 · 2031-09
L · Dec · R3
Jiri ProchazkaRating 7.2
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 504 · 2031-08
W · KO · R1
rountree-khalilRating 6.5
KO/TKO · Head Kick and Punches
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R1
Jiri ProchazkaRating 6.7
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

News & Media

Jiri Prochazka · Alex Pereira
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