★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Welterweight
VS
48%
Edwards
52%
Covington
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 5 · 5:00
LE
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
22 – 3
6'0"72" reachSouthpaw34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 57
CC
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
17 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak38 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'11"
CFR 62

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Covington

This is a genuine toss-up — Edwards at 48% vs Covington at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Edwards has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Edwards
Covington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
72"+
Reach
70"
34+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Edwards
Covington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
62.4
51.1
Performance Avg
55.0
36
Quality of Victory
45
95
Momentum Score
100
Edwards
Covington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
8.9
8.5
66%
Strike Accuracy
62%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
130
Head
125
52
Body
53
36
Leg
40
RangeRange
118Distance111
33Clinch42
67Ground65
Edwards
Covington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.2
1.6
3%
Takedown Accuracy
16%
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
5:35
Control Time (this fight)
9:28
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Covington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
60
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
82%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
92%
5/25 fights
Chin rating based on
5/22 fights
Edwards
Covington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
100
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Edwards
Covington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
42%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Edwards
Covington
Striking3.6 / 3.9Volume7.2 / 6.1Grappling2.3 / 2.7Wrestling1.6 / 1.9Submission0.7 / 1.7Pressure4.2 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Edwards
Strike Zones
Covington
Edwards
Attacking
130HEAD52BODY36LEGS218 landed
Absorbing
125HEAD53BODY40LEGS218 absorbed
Covington
Attacking
125HEAD53BODY40LEGS218 landed
Absorbing
130HEAD52BODY36LEGS218 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (60% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Covington targets the head (57% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Edwards
RND
Covington
42/68R137/59
57/87R247/74
39/59R350/80
41/57R444/68
39/60R540/62

Edwards · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.2
0105.9W5.9W6.7W6.9L5.7W2023-122024-072032-042032-042032-04
WinLossTrend

Covington · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0106.6L6.6L5.6W6.0W4.7W2023-122024-072032-042032-042032-05
WinLossTrend

Edwards · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 537 · 2032-04
L · Dec · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 6.9
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 536 · 2032-04
W · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.7
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 535 · 2032-04
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.9
Decision · Unanimous
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Covington · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.9
Decision · Unanimous
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

Covington · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 540 · 2032-05
W · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 6
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 538 · 2032-04
W · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 536 · 2032-04
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision · Unanimous
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Covington · 2024-07
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision · Unanimous
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

News & Media

Leon Edwards · Colby Covington
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