★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Newark, USA
1 Jun 2024
Lightweight
VS
54%
Makhachev
46%
Poirier
Win Probability
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
Round 5 · 3:53
IM
Islam Makhachev
26 – 1
5'10"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs7-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 75
DP
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
29 – 8
Well-Rounded37 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'9"
CFR 62

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Makhachev

This is a genuine toss-up — Makhachev at 54% vs Poirier at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Makhachev
Poirier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Makhachev
Poirier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.6
62.4
70.0
Performance Avg
59.5
54
Quality of Victory
52
100
Momentum Score
100
Makhachev
Poirier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
7.8
9.8
66%
Strike Accuracy
67%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
105
Head
122
43
Body
49
27
Leg
34
RangeRange
74Distance113
27Clinch33
74Ground59
Makhachev
Poirier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.3
0.8
21%
Takedown Accuracy
18%
0.8
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
11:31
Control Time (this fight)
4:55
0
Reversals
0
Makhachev
Poirier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
0
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
93%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
69%
7/27 fights
Chin rating based on
7/37 fights
Makhachev
Poirier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Makhachev
Poirier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
65%
64%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev
Poirier
Striking3.6 / 6.0Volume4.7 / 4.0Grappling4.6 / 2.2Wrestling3.2 / 1.6Submission4.7 / 1.8Pressure7.4 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Makhachev
Strike Zones
Poirier
Makhachev
Attacking
105HEAD43BODY27LEGS175 landed
Absorbing
122HEAD49BODY34LEGS205 absorbed
Poirier
Attacking
122HEAD49BODY34LEGS205 landed
Absorbing
105HEAD43BODY27LEGS175 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Makhachev targets the head (60% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Poirier targets the head (60% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev
RND
Poirier
40/63R148/75
33/54R249/74
45/70R354/78
48/67R443/63
9/15R511/19

Makhachev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.9
0106.5W6.9W6.9W6.9W6.7W8.0W6.5W2023-102031-112031-122031-12
WinLossTrend

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.4
0107.7W6.0L6.0L6.9L7.7W7.0W3.5L2023-072031-112032-012032-02
WinLossTrend

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 6.5
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 520 · 2031-12
W · Sub · R3
Conor McGregorRating 8
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 519 · 2031-12
W · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 518 · 2031-12
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.9
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11
W · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 516 · 2031-11

Poirier · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.5
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 527 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Conor McGregorRating 7
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 526 · 2032-01
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.7
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 525 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 521 · 2031-12
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Dustin Poirier
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