★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Las Vegas, USA
29 Jun 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Pereira
47%
Prochazka
Win Probability
KO/TKO · Punches
Round 1 · 4:54
AP
Alex Pereira
"Poatan"
12 – 2
6'4"80" reachOrthodox38 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 77
JP
Jiri Prochazka
"Denisa"
8 – 3
Knockout Artist2-fight slide33 yrsSouthpaw80" reach6'3"
CFR 68

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pereira

This is a genuine toss-up — Pereira at 53% vs Prochazka at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pereira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Striking split: Prochazka throws more volume but Pereira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Prochazka has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pereira
Prochazka
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
80"
Reach
80"
38
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pereira
Prochazka
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
76.9
68.4
77.0
Performance Avg
60.9
73
Quality of Victory
57
78
Momentum Score
98
Pereira
Prochazka
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
9.4
9.6
66%
Strike Accuracy
62%
9.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
14
7
Body
6
5
Leg
4
RangeRange
20Distance14
5Clinch4
5Ground6
Pereira
Prochazka
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
0.5
0%
Takedown Accuracy
11%
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.9
0:25
Control Time (this fight)
0:30
0
Reversals
0
Pereira
Prochazka
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
34
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
90%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
98%
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
5/11 fights
Pereira
Prochazka
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
98
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
Pereira
Prochazka
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pereira
Prochazka
Striking9.7 / 9.7Volume3.3 / 1.3Grappling0.5 / 1.3Wrestling0.3 / 0.9Submission0.0 / 1.7Pressure8.1 / 9.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.7
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.0
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.3
Pereira
Strike Zones
Prochazka
Pereira
Attacking
18HEAD7BODY5LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD6BODY4LEGS24 absorbed
Prochazka
Attacking
14HEAD6BODY4LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD7BODY5LEGS30 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pereira targets the head (60% of attacks) — Prochazka absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Prochazka targets the head (58% of attacks) — Pereira absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pereira
RND
Prochazka
30/44R124/40

Pereira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.2
0104.4L6.5W6.7W6.5W7.2L6.1L6.0W2023-112024-062031-082031-09
WinLossTrend

Prochazka · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.1
0107.3W3.6L6.6W6.1L7.0L2023-112024-062031-082031-092031-09
WinLossTrend

Pereira · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Magomed AnkalaevRating 6
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 506 · 2031-09
L · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 505 · 2031-09
L · Dec · R3
Jiri ProchazkaRating 7.2
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 504 · 2031-08
W · KO · R1
rountree-khalilRating 6.5
KO/TKO · Head Kick and Punches
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R1
Jiri ProchazkaRating 6.7
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

Prochazka · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 508 · 2031-09
L · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 507 · 2031-09
W · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 6.6
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 504 · 2031-08
L · KO · R1
Alex PereiraRating 3.6
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.3
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

News & Media

Alex Pereira · Jiri Prochazka
← Back to fights