METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Covington
Manchester, UK
27 Jul 2024
Welterweight
VS
48%
Edwards
52%
Covington
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Leon EdwardswinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Colby Covington · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Covington
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Covington
→
Actual result
Edwards wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Edwards at 48% vs Covington at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Edwards has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EdwardsCovington
231
Sig. Strikes
216
9.2
Strikes / min (SLpM)
8.6
67%
Strike Accuracy
63%
0 (0%)
Takedowns
2 (13%)
5:50
Control Time
6:58
Edwards
Covington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
72"+
Reach
70"
34+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Edwards
Covington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
62.4
51.1
Performance Avg
55.0
36
Quality of Victory
45
95
Momentum Score
100
Edwards
Covington
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.9
8.5
66%
Strike Accuracy
62%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
140
Head
125
56
Body
52
35
Leg
39
RangeRange
127Distance110
34Clinch41
70Ground65
Edwards
Covington
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.2
1.6
3%
Takedown Accuracy
16%
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
5:50
Control Time (this fight)
6:58
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Covington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
60
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
82%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
92%
5/25 fights
Chin rating based on
5/22 fights
Edwards
Covington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
100
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Edwards
Covington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
42%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Covington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
EdwardsCovington
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
231 landedAbsorbing
216 absorbedCovington
Attacking
216 landedAbsorbing
231 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (61% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Covington targets the head (58% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Covington
43/64R154/84
56/84R242/63
41/61R341/65
50/81R440/66
41/55R539/63
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.2WinLossTrend
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Edwards · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 537 · 2032-04
L · Dec · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 536 · 2032-04
W · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 535 · 2032-04
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Covington · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Covington · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 540 · 2032-05
W · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 538 · 2032-04
W · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 536 · 2032-04
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Covington · 2024-07
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Fight Videos
Edwards
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-04
Edwards
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-04
Edwards
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-04
Edwards
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2024-07
Covington
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-05
Covington
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-04
Covington
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-04
Covington
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2024-07