★ Championship Bout · Featherweight
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Abu Dhabi, UAE
26 Oct 2024
Featherweight
VS
58%
Topuria
42%
Holloway
Win Probability
KO/TKO · Punches
Round 3 · 0:38
IT
Ilia Topuria
"El Matador"
16 – 0
5'7"70" reachOrthodox29 yrs4-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 83
MH
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
26 – 7
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'11"
CFR 59

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Topuria

This is a genuine toss-up — Topuria at 58% vs Holloway at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Holloway throws more volume but Topuria connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Holloway has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Topuria
Holloway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'11"
70"+
Reach
67"
29+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Topuria
Holloway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
82.5
59.4
77.8
Performance Avg
61.2
63
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
63
Topuria
Holloway
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
9.2
11.5
68%
Strike Accuracy
66%
8.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
71
Head
85
29
Body
35
19
Leg
23
RangeRange
61Distance84
20Clinch26
38Ground33
Topuria
Holloway
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.9
0.0
22%
Takedown Accuracy
0%
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
3:54
Control Time (this fight)
2:45
0
Reversals
0
Topuria
Holloway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
54%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
59%
4/16 fights
Chin rating based on
3/33 fights
Topuria
Holloway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
Topuria
Holloway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
52%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Topuria
Holloway
Striking8.7 / 5.8Volume3.8 / 4.9Grappling1.4 / 1.7Wrestling1.0 / 1.2Submission1.1 / 0.9Pressure8.4 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Topuria
Strike Zones
Holloway
Topuria
Attacking
71HEAD29BODY19LEGS119 landed
Absorbing
85HEAD35BODY23LEGS143 absorbed
Holloway
Attacking
85HEAD35BODY23LEGS143 landed
Absorbing
71HEAD29BODY19LEGS119 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Topuria targets the head (60% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Holloway targets the head (59% of attacks) — Topuria absorbs 59% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Topuria
RND
Holloway
52/80R159/94
56/82R248/74
11/14R336/54

Topuria · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.5
0106.6W6.5W6.7W6.0W2024-022024-102032-032032-03
WinLossTrend

Holloway · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.2
0105.1L7.0W6.4L2024-102032-032032-03
WinLossTrend

Topuria · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 533 · 2032-03
W · Sub · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.7
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 532 · 2032-03
W · KO · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.5
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.6
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

Holloway · Last 3

L · Sub · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 6.4
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 532 · 2032-03
W · KO · R3
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 531 · 2032-03
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10

News & Media

Ilia Topuria · Max Holloway
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