★ Championship Bout · Heavyweight
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
New York, USA
16 Nov 2024
Heavyweight
VS
56%
Jones
44%
Miocic
Win Probability
KO/TKO · Punches
Round 3 · 2:28
JJ
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29 – 1
6'4"84" reachOrthodox38 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 80
SM
Stipe Miocic
20 – 4
Striker3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'4"
CFR 63

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Jones

This is a genuine toss-up — Jones at 56% vs Miocic at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Miocic has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Miocic has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Jones
Miocic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
84"+
Reach
80"
38+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jones
Miocic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
80.3
63.0
76.7
Performance Avg
65.6
64
Quality of Victory
60
100
Momentum Score
78
Jones
Miocic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
7.4
8.9
64%
Strike Accuracy
64%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
62
Head
70
24
Body
30
18
Leg
21
RangeRange
48Distance66
16Clinch20
40Ground35
Jones
Miocic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.7
0.0
33%
Takedown Accuracy
0%
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.9
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
4:26
Control Time (this fight)
2:55
0
Reversals
0
Jones
Miocic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
10
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
70%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
58%
3/30 fights
Chin rating based on
3/24 fights
Jones
Miocic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
78
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
Jones
Miocic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
64%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jones
Miocic
Striking4.6 / 7.9Volume5.5 / 4.3Grappling3.3 / 0.9Wrestling2.3 / 0.6Submission2.7 / 0.0Pressure6.7 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.9
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
Jones
Strike Zones
Miocic
Jones
Attacking
62HEAD24BODY18LEGS104 landed
Absorbing
70HEAD30BODY21LEGS121 absorbed
Miocic
Attacking
70HEAD30BODY21LEGS121 landed
Absorbing
62HEAD24BODY18LEGS104 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jones targets the head (60% of attacks) — Miocic absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Miocic targets the head (58% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jones
RND
Miocic
43/66R145/69
39/53R260/92
22/38R316/24

Jones · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.9
0106.7W6.7W7.2W2024-112031-082031-08
WinLossTrend

Miocic · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0105.0L5.0L7.7L2024-112031-082031-08
WinLossTrend

Jones · Last 3

W · Sub · R1
Francis NgannouRating 7.2
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 502 · 2031-08
W · Sub · R2
Stipe MiocicRating 6.7
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 501 · 2031-08
W · KO · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.7
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11

Miocic · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Francis NgannouRating 7.7
Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 503 · 2031-08
L · Sub · R2
Jon JonesRating 5
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 501 · 2031-08
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 5
KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11

News & Media

Jon Jones · Stipe Miocic
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