METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 502
Las Vegas, USA
16 Aug 2031
Heavyweight
VS
51%
Jones
49%
Ngannou
Win Probability
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
Round 1 · 3:11
★ Official Result
Jon JoneswinsSubmissionR1 · 3:11
def. Francis Ngannou · UFC Fight Night 502
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Jones
→
Actual result
Jones wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Jones at 51% vs Ngannou at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Ngannou throws more volume but Jones connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JonesNgannou
7
Sig. Strikes
31
2.8
Strikes / min (SLpM)
12.4
54%
Strike Accuracy
55%
0:15
Control Time
0:40
Jones
Ngannou
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
84"+
Reach
83"
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jones
Ngannou
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
80.3
78.2
76.7
Performance Avg
70.4
64
Quality of Victory
60
100
Momentum Score
100
Jones
Ngannou
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.4
10.2
64%
Strike Accuracy
56%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
17
1
Body
7
2
Leg
7
RangeRange
3Distance18
1Clinch5
3Ground8
Jones
Ngannou
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
0.0
33%
Takedown Accuracy
0%
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.9
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:15
Control Time (this fight)
0:40
0
Reversals
0
Jones
Ngannou
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
70%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
94%
3/30 fights
Chin rating based on
2/20 fights
Jones
Ngannou
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Jones
Ngannou
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
83%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jones
Ngannou
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.2
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.4
JonesNgannou
Strike Zones
Jones
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedNgannou
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jones targets the head (57% of attacks) — Ngannou absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Ngannou targets the head (55% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jones
RND
Ngannou
7/13R131/56
Jones · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.9WinLossTrend
Ngannou · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Jones · Last 3
W · Sub · R1
Francis NgannouRating 7.2Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 502 · 2031-08
W · Sub · R2
Stipe MiocicRating 6.7Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 501 · 2031-08
W · KO · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
Ngannou · Last 2
W · Dec · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 503 · 2031-08
L · Sub · R1
Jon JonesRating 3.8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 502 · 2031-08
Fight Videos
Jones
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2031-08
Jones
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2031-08
Jones
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2024-11
Ngannou
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-08
Ngannou
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2031-08