METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 509
Las Vegas, USA
4 Oct 2031
Light Heavyweight
VS
41%
Blachowicz
59%
Ankalaev
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Magomed AnkalaevwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jan Blachowicz · UFC Fight Night 509
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ankalaev
→
Actual result
Ankalaev wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Blachowicz at 41% vs Ankalaev at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Blachowicz throws more volume but Ankalaev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Blachowicz's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ankalaev has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BlachowiczAnkalaev
141
Sig. Strikes
137
9.4
Strikes / min (SLpM)
9.1
64%
Strike Accuracy
66%
0 (0%)
Takedowns
2 (22%)
3:05
Control Time
5:26
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
77"
Reach
+78"
43
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
66.0
53.0
Performance Avg
59.9
48
Quality of Victory
43
20
Momentum Score
100
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.2
9.0
65%
Strike Accuracy
66%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
82
Head
82
35
Body
34
24
Leg
21
RangeRange
83Distance70
21Clinch21
37Ground46
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.3
1.7
6%
Takedown Accuracy
19%
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
3:05
Control Time (this fight)
5:26
0
Reversals
0
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
102%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
92%
3/39 fights
Chin rating based on
3/20 fights
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
BlachowiczAnkalaev
Strike Zones
Blachowicz
Attacking
141 landedAbsorbing
137 absorbedAnkalaev
Attacking
137 landedAbsorbing
141 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Blachowicz targets the head (58% of attacks) — Ankalaev absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Ankalaev targets the head (60% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Blachowicz
RND
Ankalaev
40/66R152/81
48/76R245/62
53/78R340/64
Blachowicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.6WinLossTrend
Ankalaev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.3WinLossTrend
Blachowicz · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 509 · 2031-10
W · Dec · R3
Jiri ProchazkaRating 6.2Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 507 · 2031-09
W · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 505 · 2031-09
Ankalaev · Last 3
W · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 5.1Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 509 · 2031-10
W · Dec · R3
Jiri ProchazkaRating 6.2Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 508 · 2031-09
L · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 506 · 2031-09
Fight Videos
Blachowicz
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-10
Blachowicz
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-09
Blachowicz
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-09
Ankalaev
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-10
Ankalaev
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-09
Ankalaev
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-09