METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 510
Las Vegas, USA
11 Oct 2031
Middleweight
VS
53%
Adesanya
47%
Strickland
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 66
★ Official Result
Sean StricklandwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Israel Adesanya · UFC Fight Night 510
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Adesanya
→
Actual result
Strickland wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Adesanya at 53% vs Strickland at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Adesanya has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Striking split: Strickland throws more volume but Adesanya connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Adesanya's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Strickland has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AdesanyaStrickland
116
Sig. Strikes
149
7.7
Strikes / min (SLpM)
9.9
68%
Strike Accuracy
61%
0 (0%)
Takedowns
1 (17%)
1:55
Control Time
3:59
Adesanya
Strickland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
80"+
Reach
76"
36
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Adesanya
Strickland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.8
57.7
64.5
Performance Avg
50.9
62
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
100
Adesanya
Strickland
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.5
9.8
69%
Strike Accuracy
62%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
72
Head
86
28
Body
36
16
Leg
27
RangeRange
77Distance94
16Clinch25
23Ground30
Adesanya
Strickland
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
0.4
0%
Takedown Accuracy
10%
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
1:55
Control Time (this fight)
3:59
0
Reversals
0
Adesanya
Strickland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
74%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
88%
5/27 fights
Chin rating based on
5/34 fights
Adesanya
Strickland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Adesanya
Strickland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Adesanya
Strickland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
AdesanyaStrickland
Strike Zones
Adesanya
Attacking
116 landedAbsorbing
149 absorbedStrickland
Attacking
149 landedAbsorbing
116 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Adesanya targets the head (62% of attacks) — Strickland absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Strickland targets the head (58% of attacks) — Adesanya absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Adesanya
RND
Strickland
45/61R153/87
35/54R247/83
36/55R349/74
Adesanya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Strickland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Adesanya · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 512 · 2031-10
L · KO · R2
Dricus Du PlessisRating 4.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 511 · 2031-10
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 510 · 2031-10
L · Sub · R4
Dricus Du PlessisRating 5.3Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya 2 · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Strickland · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Robert WhittakerRating 6.3KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 514 · 2031-11
L · KO · R1
Dricus Du PlessisRating 3.4KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 513 · 2031-11
W · Dec · R3
Israel AdesanyaRating 6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 510 · 2031-10
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision · Split
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R5
Israel AdesanyaRating 6Decision · Unanimous
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Fight Videos
Adesanya
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-10
Adesanya
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2031-10
Adesanya
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-10
Adesanya
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2024-08
Strickland
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2031-11
Strickland
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2031-11
Strickland
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-10
Strickland
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2024-01