METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 512
Las Vegas, USA
25 Oct 2031
Middleweight
VS
54%
Adesanya
46%
Whittaker
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 66
★ Official Result
Robert WhittakerwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Israel Adesanya · UFC Fight Night 512
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Adesanya
→
Actual result
Whittaker wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Adesanya at 54% vs Whittaker at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Whittaker throws more volume but Adesanya connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Adesanya's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Whittaker has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AdesanyaWhittaker
137
Sig. Strikes
135
9.1
Strikes / min (SLpM)
9.0
67%
Strike Accuracy
65%
2:15
Control Time
2:50
Adesanya
Whittaker
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'0"
80"+
Reach
73"
36
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Adesanya
Whittaker
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.8
56.9
64.5
Performance Avg
60.9
62
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
71
Adesanya
Whittaker
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.5
9.8
69%
Strike Accuracy
66%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
85
Head
81
33
Body
33
19
Leg
21
RangeRange
91Distance80
19Clinch21
27Ground34
Adesanya
Whittaker
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
0.4
0%
Takedown Accuracy
9%
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
2:15
Control Time (this fight)
2:50
0
Reversals
0
Adesanya
Whittaker
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
16
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
74%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
85%
5/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/32 fights
Adesanya
Whittaker
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
71
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Adesanya
Whittaker
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
35%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Adesanya
Whittaker
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
AdesanyaWhittaker
Strike Zones
Adesanya
Attacking
137 landedAbsorbing
135 absorbedWhittaker
Attacking
135 landedAbsorbing
137 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Adesanya targets the head (62% of attacks) — Whittaker absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Whittaker targets the head (60% of attacks) — Adesanya absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Adesanya
RND
Whittaker
54/80R145/70
39/60R249/72
44/64R341/67
Adesanya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Whittaker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Adesanya · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 512 · 2031-10
L · KO · R2
Dricus Du PlessisRating 4.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 511 · 2031-10
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 510 · 2031-10
L · Sub · R4
Dricus Du PlessisRating 5.3Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya 2 · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Whittaker · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 515 · 2031-11
L · KO · R2
Sean StricklandRating 3.9KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 514 · 2031-11
W · Dec · R3
Israel AdesanyaRating 6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 512 · 2031-10
Fight Videos
Adesanya
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-10
Adesanya
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2031-10
Adesanya
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-10
Adesanya
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2024-08
Whittaker
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-11
Whittaker
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2031-11
Whittaker
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-10