METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 516
Las Vegas, USA
22 Nov 2031
Lightweight
VS
54%
Makhachev
46%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
Round 3 · 4:33
★ Official Result
Islam MakhachevwinsSubmissionR3 · 4:33
def. Charles Oliveira · UFC Fight Night 516
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Makhachev
→
Actual result
Makhachev wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Makhachev at 54% vs Oliveira at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Oliveira throws more volume but Makhachev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MakhachevOliveira
106
Sig. Strikes
109
8.5
Strikes / min (SLpM)
8.7
68%
Strike Accuracy
64%
2 (20%)
Takedowns
0 (0%)
5:30
Control Time
3:50
Makhachev
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
34+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Makhachev
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.6
63.3
70.0
Performance Avg
58.6
54
Quality of Victory
51
100
Momentum Score
100
Makhachev
Oliveira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.8
8.7
66%
Strike Accuracy
63%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
64
Head
63
25
Body
26
17
Leg
20
RangeRange
45Distance47
16Clinch16
45Ground46
Makhachev
Oliveira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
0.7
21%
Takedown Accuracy
13%
0.8
Sub Attempts / fight
1.4
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.1
5:30
Control Time (this fight)
3:50
0
Reversals
0
Makhachev
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
0
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
93%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
61%
7/27 fights
Chin rating based on
5/43 fights
Makhachev
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Makhachev
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
65%
84%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Makhachev
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.1
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.8
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
MakhachevOliveira
Strike Zones
Makhachev
Attacking
106 landedAbsorbing
109 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
109 landedAbsorbing
106 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Makhachev targets the head (60% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (58% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Makhachev
RND
Oliveira
33/49R146/68
46/70R247/80
27/36R316/22
Makhachev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.9WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 7.0WinLossTrend
Makhachev · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 6.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 520 · 2031-12
W · Sub · R3
Conor McGregorRating 8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 519 · 2031-12
W · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 518 · 2031-12
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.9Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11
W · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 516 · 2031-11
Oliveira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 524 · 2032-01
W · Sub · R2
Conor McGregorRating 7.8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 523 · 2032-01
W · Sub · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.7Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 522 · 2032-01
W · Dec · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 521 · 2031-12
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 516 · 2031-11
Fight Videos
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2031-12
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2031-11
Oliveira
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12