METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 517
Las Vegas, USA
29 Nov 2031
Lightweight
VS
54%
Makhachev
46%
Poirier
Win Probability
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
Round 3 · 3:39
★ Official Result
Islam MakhachevwinsSubmissionR3 · 3:39
def. Dustin Poirier · UFC Fight Night 517
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Makhachev
→
Actual result
Makhachev wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Makhachev at 54% vs Poirier at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MakhachevPoirier
89
Sig. Strikes
117
7.1
Strikes / min (SLpM)
9.4
66%
Strike Accuracy
68%
4 (36%)
Takedowns
0 (0%)
6:31
Control Time
2:50
Makhachev
Poirier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Makhachev
Poirier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.6
62.4
70.0
Performance Avg
59.5
54
Quality of Victory
52
100
Momentum Score
100
Makhachev
Poirier
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.8
9.8
66%
Strike Accuracy
67%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
53
Head
69
21
Body
28
15
Leg
20
RangeRange
38Distance64
14Clinch19
37Ground34
Makhachev
Poirier
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
0.8
21%
Takedown Accuracy
18%
0.8
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
6:31
Control Time (this fight)
2:50
0
Reversals
0
Makhachev
Poirier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
0
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
93%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
69%
7/27 fights
Chin rating based on
7/37 fights
Makhachev
Poirier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Makhachev
Poirier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
65%
64%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Makhachev
Poirier
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
MakhachevPoirier
Strike Zones
Makhachev
Attacking
89 landedAbsorbing
117 absorbedPoirier
Attacking
117 landedAbsorbing
89 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Makhachev targets the head (60% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Poirier targets the head (59% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 59% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Makhachev
RND
Poirier
41/63R149/71
42/60R249/70
6/11R319/32
Makhachev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.9WinLossTrend
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.4WinLossTrend
Makhachev · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 6.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 520 · 2031-12
W · Sub · R3
Conor McGregorRating 8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 519 · 2031-12
W · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 518 · 2031-12
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.9Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11
W · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 516 · 2031-11
Poirier · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.5Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 527 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Conor McGregorRating 7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 526 · 2032-01
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 525 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 521 · 2031-12
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11
Fight Videos
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2031-12
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2031-11
Poirier
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Poirier
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
Poirier
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-01
Poirier
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12