Islam Makhachev vs Justin Gaethje — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night 518

Las Vegas, USA

6 Dec 2031

Lightweight

49%

Makhachev

51%

Gaethje

Win Probability

Decision · Unanimous

Round 3 · 5:00

Islam Makhachev

26 – 1

5'10"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs7-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 75

Justin Gaethje

"The Highlight"

25 – 5

Striker6-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"

CFR 78

★ Official Result

Islam MakhachevwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Justin Gaethje · UFC Fight Night 518

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Gaethje

→

Actual result

Makhachev wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Makhachev at 49% vs Gaethje at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 36 points.

Striking split: Gaethje throws more volume but Makhachev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MakhachevGaethje

117

Sig. Strikes

158

7.8

Strikes / min (SLpM)

10.5

66%

Strike Accuracy

63%

4:05

Control Time

2:15

Makhachev

Gaethje

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"+

Height

5'9"

70"+

Reach

70"

34+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Makhachev

Gaethje

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

74.6

78.2

70.0

Performance Avg

80.4

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

100

Makhachev

Gaethje

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

7.8

10.0

66%

Strike Accuracy

61%

3.6

Striking Style Score (/10)

7.3

1 KOs

KO Finishes

0 KOs

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

50Distance100

18Clinch31

49Ground27

Makhachev

Gaethje

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.3

0.4

21%

Takedown Accuracy

0.8

Sub Attempts / fight

—

4.6

Grappling Style Score (/10)

1.0

3.2

Wrestling Style Score (/10)

0.7

4:05

Control Time (this fight)

2:15

Reversals

Makhachev

Gaethje

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R2.3 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

93%

Fade index (R3÷R1 output)

61%

7/27 fights

Chin rating based on

6/30 fights

Makhachev

Gaethje

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

7-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

6-fight 📉 slide

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

L · KO · R3

L · Sub · R3

L · Dec · R3

Makhachev

Gaethje

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

65%

60%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev

Gaethje

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

7.3

4.6

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.0

3.2

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.7

4.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

7.4

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.2

4.7

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.5

Makhachev

Strike Zones

Gaethje

Makhachev

Attacking

117 landed

Absorbing

158 absorbed

Gaethje

Attacking

158 landed

Absorbing

117 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Makhachev targets the head (60% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 60% of strikes there

🎯Gaethje targets the head (58% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev

RND

Gaethje

34/55R155/87

41/56R253/84

42/66R350/81

Makhachev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.9

WinLossTrend

Gaethje · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9

WinLossTrend

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

Khabib NurmagomedovRating 6.5

Decision · Unanimous

UFC Fight Night 520 · 2031-12

W · Sub · R3

Conor McGregorRating 8

Submission · Rear Naked Choke

UFC Fight Night 519 · 2031-12

W · Dec · R3

Justin GaethjeRating 6.7

Decision · Unanimous

UFC Fight Night 518 · 2031-12

W · Sub · R3

Dustin PoirierRating 6.9

Submission · Rear Naked Choke

UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11

W · Sub · R3

Charles OliveiraRating 6.9

Submission · Rear Naked Choke

UFC Fight Night 516 · 2031-11

Gaethje · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Khabib NurmagomedovRating 7.5

Decision · Unanimous

UFC Fight Night 529 · 2032-02

L · KO · R1

Conor McGregorRating 4

KO/TKO · Punches

UFC Fight Night 528 · 2032-02

L · KO · R3

Dustin PoirierRating 5.4

KO/TKO · Punches

UFC Fight Night 525 · 2032-01

L · Sub · R3

Charles OliveiraRating 5.4

Submission · Rear Naked Choke

UFC Fight Night 522 · 2032-01

L · Dec · R3

Islam MakhachevRating 7.5

Decision · Unanimous

UFC Fight Night 518 · 2031-12

Fight Videos

Makhachev

vs TBC

Decision · 2031-12

Makhachev

vs TBC

Submission · 2031-12

Makhachev

vs TBC

Decision · 2031-12

Makhachev

vs TBC

Submission · 2031-11

Gaethje

vs TBC

Decision · 2032-02

Gaethje

vs TBC

KO/TKO · 2032-02

Gaethje

vs TBC

KO/TKO · 2032-01

Gaethje

vs TBC

Submission · 2032-01

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Justin Gaethje

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