METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 519
Las Vegas, USA
13 Dec 2031
Lightweight
VS
47%
Makhachev
53%
McGregor
Win Probability
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
Round 3 · 1:16
★ Official Result
Islam MakhachevwinsSubmissionR3 · 1:16
def. Conor McGregor · UFC Fight Night 519
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McGregor
→
Actual result
Makhachev wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Makhachev at 47% vs McGregor at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.
McGregor has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
McGregor has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MakhachevMcGregor
99
Sig. Strikes
121
7.9
Strikes / min (SLpM)
9.7
64%
Strike Accuracy
67%
3 (27%)
Takedowns
0 (0%)
5:38
Control Time
2:30
Makhachev
McGregor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+74"
34+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Makhachev
McGregor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.6
85.4
70.0
Performance Avg
84.3
54
Quality of Victory
93
100
Momentum Score
100
Makhachev
McGregor
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.8
9.6
66%
Strike Accuracy
68%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
59
Head
73
23
Body
29
17
Leg
19
RangeRange
42Distance72
15Clinch19
42Ground30
Makhachev
McGregor
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
0.0
21%
Takedown Accuracy
0%
0.8
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
5:38
Control Time (this fight)
2:30
0
Reversals
0
Makhachev
McGregor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
52
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
93%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
69%
7/27 fights
Chin rating based on
5/28 fights
Makhachev
McGregor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
Makhachev
McGregor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
65%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Makhachev
McGregor
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.4
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
MakhachevMcGregor
Strike Zones
Makhachev
Attacking
99 landedAbsorbing
121 absorbedMcGregor
Attacking
121 landedAbsorbing
99 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Makhachev targets the head (60% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯McGregor targets the head (60% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Makhachev
RND
McGregor
33/51R145/68
35/56R251/74
31/48R325/38
Makhachev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.9WinLossTrend
McGregor · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.1WinLossTrend
Makhachev · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 6.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 520 · 2031-12
W · Sub · R3
Conor McGregorRating 8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 519 · 2031-12
W · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 518 · 2031-12
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.9Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11
W · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 516 · 2031-11
McGregor · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 530 · 2032-02
W · KO · R1
Justin GaethjeRating 7.2KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 528 · 2032-02
L · Dec · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 526 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 523 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 519 · 2031-12
Fight Videos
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2031-12
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Makhachev
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2031-11
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
McGregor
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-02
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01