METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 521
Las Vegas, USA
27 Dec 2031
Lightweight
VS
50%
Oliveira
50%
Poirier
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Charles OliveirawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Dustin Poirier · UFC Fight Night 521
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Oliveira
→
Actual result
Oliveira wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 50% vs Poirier at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OliveiraPoirier
116
Sig. Strikes
147
7.7
Strikes / min (SLpM)
9.8
64%
Strike Accuracy
69%
2 (20%)
Takedowns
1 (25%)
6:34
Control Time
4:29
Oliveira
Poirier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+72"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Poirier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
62.4
58.6
Performance Avg
59.5
51
Quality of Victory
52
100
Momentum Score
100
Oliveira
Poirier
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.7
9.8
63%
Strike Accuracy
67%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
68
Head
89
27
Body
35
21
Leg
23
RangeRange
49Distance80
17Clinch23
50Ground44
Oliveira
Poirier
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
0.8
13%
Takedown Accuracy
18%
1.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
4.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
6:34
Control Time (this fight)
4:29
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Poirier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
3
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
61%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
69%
5/43 fights
Chin rating based on
7/37 fights
Oliveira
Poirier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Oliveira
Poirier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
64%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Poirier
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
OliveiraPoirier
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
116 landedAbsorbing
147 absorbedPoirier
Attacking
147 landedAbsorbing
116 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (59% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Poirier targets the head (61% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 61% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Poirier
43/71R155/84
39/60R246/65
34/51R346/64
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 7.0WinLossTrend
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.4WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 524 · 2032-01
W · Sub · R2
Conor McGregorRating 7.8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 523 · 2032-01
W · Sub · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.7Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 522 · 2032-01
W · Dec · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 521 · 2031-12
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 516 · 2031-11
Poirier · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.5Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 527 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Conor McGregorRating 7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 526 · 2032-01
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 525 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 521 · 2031-12
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11
Fight Videos
Oliveira
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Poirier
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Poirier
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
Poirier
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-01
Poirier
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12