METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 522
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jan 2032
Lightweight
VS
45%
Oliveira
55%
Gaethje
Win Probability
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
Round 3 · 1:31
★ Official Result
Charles OliveirawinsSubmissionR3 · 1:31
def. Justin Gaethje · UFC Fight Night 522
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gaethje
→
Actual result
Oliveira wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 45% vs Gaethje at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 38 points.
Striking split: Gaethje throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OliveiraGaethje
127
Sig. Strikes
119
10.2
Strikes / min (SLpM)
9.5
63%
Strike Accuracy
63%
4:25
Control Time
1:55
Oliveira
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"+
Reach
70"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
78.2
58.6
Performance Avg
80.4
51
Quality of Victory
90
100
Momentum Score
100
Oliveira
Gaethje
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.7
10.0
63%
Strike Accuracy
61%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
73
Head
69
31
Body
29
23
Leg
21
RangeRange
55Distance74
19Clinch22
53Ground23
Oliveira
Gaethje
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
0.4
13%
Takedown Accuracy
7%
1.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
4.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
4:25
Control Time (this fight)
1:55
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
61%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
61%
5/43 fights
Chin rating based on
6/30 fights
Oliveira
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Oliveira
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
OliveiraGaethje
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
127 landedAbsorbing
119 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
119 landedAbsorbing
127 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (57% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (58% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Gaethje
44/74R153/84
55/84R253/82
28/43R313/22
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 7.0WinLossTrend
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 524 · 2032-01
W · Sub · R2
Conor McGregorRating 7.8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 523 · 2032-01
W · Sub · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.7Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 522 · 2032-01
W · Dec · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 521 · 2031-12
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 516 · 2031-11
Gaethje · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 529 · 2032-02
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 4KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 528 · 2032-02
L · KO · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.4KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 525 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.4Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 522 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 518 · 2031-12
Fight Videos
Oliveira
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-02
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-02
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-01
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01