METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 523
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jan 2032
Lightweight
VS
43%
Oliveira
57%
McGregor
Win Probability
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
Round 2 · 2:58
★ Official Result
Charles OliveirawinsSubmissionR2 · 2:58
def. Conor McGregor · UFC Fight Night 523
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McGregor
→
Actual result
Oliveira wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 43% vs McGregor at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.
McGregor has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McGregor has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OliveiraMcGregor
68
Sig. Strikes
71
9.1
Strikes / min (SLpM)
9.5
63%
Strike Accuracy
64%
1 (50%)
Takedowns
0 (0%)
3:27
Control Time
1:30
Oliveira
McGregor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+74"
36+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Oliveira
McGregor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
85.4
58.6
Performance Avg
84.3
51
Quality of Victory
93
100
Momentum Score
100
Oliveira
McGregor
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.7
9.6
63%
Strike Accuracy
68%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
39
Head
42
16
Body
17
13
Leg
12
RangeRange
29Distance42
10Clinch11
29Ground18
Oliveira
McGregor
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
0.0
13%
Takedown Accuracy
0%
1.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
4.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
3:27
Control Time (this fight)
1:30
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
McGregor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
3
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
61%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
69%
5/43 fights
Chin rating based on
5/28 fights
Oliveira
McGregor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
Oliveira
McGregor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
McGregor
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.4
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
OliveiraMcGregor
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
68 landedAbsorbing
71 absorbedMcGregor
Attacking
71 landedAbsorbing
68 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (57% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯McGregor targets the head (59% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 59% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
McGregor
49/78R152/78
19/30R219/33
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 7.0WinLossTrend
McGregor · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.1WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 524 · 2032-01
W · Sub · R2
Conor McGregorRating 7.8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 523 · 2032-01
W · Sub · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.7Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 522 · 2032-01
W · Dec · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 521 · 2031-12
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 516 · 2031-11
McGregor · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 530 · 2032-02
W · KO · R1
Justin GaethjeRating 7.2KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 528 · 2032-02
L · Dec · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 526 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 523 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 519 · 2031-12
Fight Videos
Oliveira
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
McGregor
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-02
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01