METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 524
Las Vegas, USA
17 Jan 2032
Lightweight
VS
46%
Oliveira
54%
Nurmagomedov
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 3 · 5:00
KN
CFR 74
★ Official Result
Khabib NurmagomedovwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Charles Oliveira · UFC Fight Night 524
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nurmagomedov
→
Actual result
Nurmagomedov wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 46% vs Nurmagomedov at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oliveira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OliveiraNurmagomedov
124
Sig. Strikes
128
8.3
Strikes / min (SLpM)
8.5
62%
Strike Accuracy
60%
0 (0%)
Takedowns
2 (18%)
4:20
Control Time
6:40
Oliveira
Nurmagomedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
71"+
Reach
70"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Nurmagomedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
74.0
58.6
Performance Avg
68.2
51
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
100
Oliveira
Nurmagomedov
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.7
7.7
63%
Strike Accuracy
62%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
72
Head
74
30
Body
31
22
Leg
23
RangeRange
53Distance50
19Clinch23
52Ground55
Oliveira
Nurmagomedov
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
2.0
13%
Takedown Accuracy
17%
1.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
4.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
4:20
Control Time (this fight)
6:40
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Nurmagomedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
100
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
61%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
92%
5/43 fights
Chin rating based on
5/29 fights
Oliveira
Nurmagomedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Oliveira
Nurmagomedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
54%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Nurmagomedov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
OliveiraNurmagomedov
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
124 landedAbsorbing
128 absorbedNurmagomedov
Attacking
128 landedAbsorbing
124 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (58% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (58% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Nurmagomedov
50/80R146/76
38/62R245/75
36/58R337/62
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 7.0WinLossTrend
Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.9WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 524 · 2032-01
W · Sub · R2
Conor McGregorRating 7.8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 523 · 2032-01
W · Sub · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.7Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 522 · 2032-01
W · Dec · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 521 · 2031-12
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 516 · 2031-11
Nurmagomedov · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Conor McGregorRating 8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 530 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 529 · 2032-02
W · Sub · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 527 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 524 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 520 · 2031-12
Fight Videos
Oliveira
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01
Oliveira
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-02
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01