METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 525
Las Vegas, USA
24 Jan 2032
Lightweight
VS
44%
Poirier
56%
Gaethje
Win Probability
KO/TKO · Punches
Round 3 · 2:25
★ Official Result
Dustin PoirierwinsKO/TKOR3 · 2:25
def. Justin Gaethje · UFC Fight Night 525
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gaethje
→
Actual result
Poirier wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Poirier at 44% vs Gaethje at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 38 points.
Striking split: Gaethje throws more volume but Poirier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PoirierGaethje
129
Sig. Strikes
107
10.3
Strikes / min (SLpM)
8.6
67%
Strike Accuracy
58%
2 (40%)
Takedowns
0 (0%)
5:46
Control Time
1:35
Poirier
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
70"
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.4
78.2
59.5
Performance Avg
80.4
52
Quality of Victory
90
100
Momentum Score
100
Poirier
Gaethje
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.8
10.0
67%
Strike Accuracy
61%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
77
Head
61
31
Body
25
21
Leg
21
RangeRange
71Distance68
20Clinch20
38Ground19
Poirier
Gaethje
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
0.4
18%
Takedown Accuracy
7%
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
5:46
Control Time (this fight)
1:35
0
Reversals
0
Poirier
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
69%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
61%
7/37 fights
Chin rating based on
6/30 fights
Poirier
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Poirier
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Poirier
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
PoirierGaethje
Strike Zones
Poirier
Attacking
129 landedAbsorbing
107 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
107 landedAbsorbing
129 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (60% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (57% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Poirier
RND
Gaethje
47/72R147/77
48/70R247/82
34/51R313/26
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.4WinLossTrend
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Poirier · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.5Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 527 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Conor McGregorRating 7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 526 · 2032-01
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 525 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 521 · 2031-12
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11
Gaethje · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 529 · 2032-02
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 4KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 528 · 2032-02
L · KO · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.4KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 525 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.4Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 522 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 518 · 2031-12
Fight Videos
Poirier
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Poirier
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
Poirier
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-01
Poirier
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-02
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-02
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-01
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01