METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 526
Las Vegas, USA
31 Jan 2032
Lightweight
VS
42%
Poirier
58%
McGregor
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Dustin PoirierwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Conor McGregor · UFC Fight Night 526
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McGregor
→
Actual result
Poirier wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Poirier at 42% vs McGregor at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.
Striking split: Poirier throws more volume but McGregor connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McGregor has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PoirierMcGregor
164
Sig. Strikes
149
10.9
Strikes / min (SLpM)
9.9
66%
Strike Accuracy
71%
2 (67%)
Takedowns
0 (0%)
6:10
Control Time
3:05
Poirier
McGregor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+74"
37+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Poirier
McGregor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.4
85.4
59.5
Performance Avg
84.3
52
Quality of Victory
93
100
Momentum Score
100
Poirier
McGregor
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.8
9.6
67%
Strike Accuracy
68%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
99
Head
89
39
Body
36
26
Leg
24
RangeRange
90Distance88
27Clinch24
47Ground37
Poirier
McGregor
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
0.0
18%
Takedown Accuracy
0%
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
6:10
Control Time (this fight)
3:05
0
Reversals
0
Poirier
McGregor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
3
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
69%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
69%
7/37 fights
Chin rating based on
5/28 fights
Poirier
McGregor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
Poirier
McGregor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
80%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Poirier
McGregor
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.4
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
PoirierMcGregor
Strike Zones
Poirier
Attacking
164 landedAbsorbing
149 absorbedMcGregor
Attacking
149 landedAbsorbing
164 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (60% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯McGregor targets the head (60% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Poirier
RND
McGregor
66/101R147/68
55/79R253/73
43/68R349/69
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.4WinLossTrend
McGregor · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.1WinLossTrend
Poirier · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.5Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 527 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Conor McGregorRating 7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 526 · 2032-01
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 525 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 521 · 2031-12
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11
McGregor · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 530 · 2032-02
W · KO · R1
Justin GaethjeRating 7.2KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 528 · 2032-02
L · Dec · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 526 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 523 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 519 · 2031-12
Fight Videos
Poirier
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Poirier
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
Poirier
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-01
Poirier
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
McGregor
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-02
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01