METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 527
Las Vegas, USA
7 Feb 2032
Lightweight
VS
46%
Poirier
54%
Nurmagomedov
Win Probability
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
Round 1 · 1:58
KN
CFR 74
★ Official Result
Khabib NurmagomedovwinsSubmissionR1 · 1:58
def. Dustin Poirier · UFC Fight Night 527
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nurmagomedov
→
Actual result
Nurmagomedov wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Poirier at 46% vs Nurmagomedov at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Poirier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PoirierNurmagomedov
27
Sig. Strikes
26
10.8
Strikes / min (SLpM)
10.4
69%
Strike Accuracy
60%
0 (0%)
Takedowns
1 (25%)
0:40
Control Time
1:47
Poirier
Nurmagomedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
72"+
Reach
70"
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Nurmagomedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.4
74.0
59.5
Performance Avg
68.2
52
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
100
Poirier
Nurmagomedov
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.8
7.7
67%
Strike Accuracy
62%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
15
6
Body
6
5
Leg
5
RangeRange
15Distance10
4Clinch4
8Ground12
Poirier
Nurmagomedov
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
2.0
18%
Takedown Accuracy
17%
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:40
Control Time (this fight)
1:47
0
Reversals
0
Poirier
Nurmagomedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
100
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
69%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
92%
7/37 fights
Chin rating based on
5/29 fights
Poirier
Nurmagomedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Poirier
Nurmagomedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
54%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Poirier
Nurmagomedov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
PoirierNurmagomedov
Strike Zones
Poirier
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedNurmagomedov
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (59% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (58% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Poirier
RND
Nurmagomedov
27/39R126/43
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.4WinLossTrend
Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.9WinLossTrend
Poirier · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.5Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 527 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Conor McGregorRating 7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 526 · 2032-01
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 525 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 521 · 2031-12
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 517 · 2031-11
Nurmagomedov · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Conor McGregorRating 8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 530 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 529 · 2032-02
W · Sub · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 527 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 524 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 520 · 2031-12
Fight Videos
Poirier
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Poirier
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
Poirier
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-01
Poirier
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2031-12
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-02
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01