METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 528
Las Vegas, USA
14 Feb 2032
Lightweight
VS
48%
Gaethje
52%
McGregor
Win Probability
KO/TKO · Punches
Round 1 · 0:16
★ Official Result
Conor McGregorwinsKO/TKOR1 · 0:16
def. Justin Gaethje · UFC Fight Night 528
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McGregor
→
Actual result
McGregor wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Gaethje at 48% vs McGregor at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Gaethje throws more volume but McGregor connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Gaethje's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McGregor has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GaethjeMcGregor
25
Sig. Strikes
29
10.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
11.6
63%
Strike Accuracy
76%
1 (50%)
Takedowns
0 (—)
1:04
Control Time
0:40
0
Knockdowns
1
Gaethje
McGregor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+74"
37+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Gaethje
McGregor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
78.2
85.4
80.4
Performance Avg
84.3
90
Quality of Victory
93
100
Momentum Score
100
Gaethje
McGregor
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
9.6
61%
Strike Accuracy
68%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
17
6
Body
7
5
Leg
5
RangeRange
16Distance17
5Clinch4
4Ground8
Gaethje
McGregor
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.4
0.0
7%
Takedown Accuracy
0%
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
1:04
Control Time (this fight)
0:40
0
Reversals
0
Gaethje
McGregor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
61%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
69%
6/30 fights
Chin rating based on
5/28 fights
Gaethje
McGregor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
Gaethje
McGregor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gaethje
McGregor
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.4
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
GaethjeMcGregor
Strike Zones
Gaethje
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedMcGregor
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gaethje targets the head (56% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯McGregor targets the head (59% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 59% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gaethje
RND
McGregor
25/40R129/38
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
McGregor · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.1WinLossTrend
Gaethje · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 529 · 2032-02
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 4KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 528 · 2032-02
L · KO · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.4KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 525 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.4Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 522 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 518 · 2031-12
McGregor · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 530 · 2032-02
W · KO · R1
Justin GaethjeRating 7.2KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 528 · 2032-02
L · Dec · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 526 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 523 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 519 · 2031-12
Fight Videos
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-02
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-02
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-01
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
McGregor
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-02
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01