METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 529
Las Vegas, USA
21 Feb 2032
Lightweight
VS
51%
Gaethje
49%
Nurmagomedov
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 3 · 5:00
KN
CFR 74
★ Official Result
Khabib NurmagomedovwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Justin Gaethje · UFC Fight Night 529
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gaethje
→
Actual result
Nurmagomedov wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Gaethje at 51% vs Nurmagomedov at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Striking split: Gaethje throws more volume but Nurmagomedov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Gaethje's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GaethjeNurmagomedov
164
Sig. Strikes
100
10.9
Strikes / min (SLpM)
6.7
63%
Strike Accuracy
62%
0 (0%)
Takedowns
1 (10%)
2:20
Control Time
4:42
Gaethje
Nurmagomedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+70"
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gaethje
Nurmagomedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
78.2
74.0
80.4
Performance Avg
68.2
90
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
100
Gaethje
Nurmagomedov
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
7.7
61%
Strike Accuracy
62%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
96
Head
57
39
Body
25
29
Leg
18
RangeRange
104Distance38
32Clinch18
28Ground44
Gaethje
Nurmagomedov
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.4
2.0
7%
Takedown Accuracy
17%
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2:20
Control Time (this fight)
4:42
0
Reversals
0
Gaethje
Nurmagomedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
100
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
61%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
92%
6/30 fights
Chin rating based on
5/29 fights
Gaethje
Nurmagomedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Gaethje
Nurmagomedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
54%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gaethje
Nurmagomedov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
GaethjeNurmagomedov
Strike Zones
Gaethje
Attacking
164 landedAbsorbing
100 absorbedNurmagomedov
Attacking
100 landedAbsorbing
164 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gaethje targets the head (59% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (57% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gaethje
RND
Nurmagomedov
63/102R132/55
51/82R232/47
50/76R336/60
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.9WinLossTrend
Gaethje · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 529 · 2032-02
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 4KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 528 · 2032-02
L · KO · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.4KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 525 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.4Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 522 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 518 · 2031-12
Nurmagomedov · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Conor McGregorRating 8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 530 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 529 · 2032-02
W · Sub · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 527 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 524 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 520 · 2031-12
Fight Videos
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-02
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-02
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-01
Gaethje
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-02
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01