METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 530
Las Vegas, USA
28 Feb 2032
Lightweight
VS
54%
McGregor
46%
Nurmagomedov
Win Probability
Submission · Rear Naked Choke
Round 3 · 4:15
KN
CFR 74
★ Official Result
Khabib NurmagomedovwinsSubmissionR3 · 4:15
def. Conor McGregor · UFC Fight Night 530
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McGregor
→
Actual result
Nurmagomedov wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — McGregor at 54% vs Nurmagomedov at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 46 points.
McGregor has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
McGregor's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
McGregorNurmagomedov
111
Sig. Strikes
79
8.9
Strikes / min (SLpM)
6.3
67%
Strike Accuracy
64%
0 (0%)
Takedowns
3 (27%)
2:20
Control Time
5:53
McGregor
Nurmagomedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
74"+
Reach
70"
38
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
McGregor
Nurmagomedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
85.4
74.0
84.3
Performance Avg
68.2
93
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
100
McGregor
Nurmagomedov
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.6
7.7
68%
Strike Accuracy
62%
9.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
65
Head
45
27
Body
19
19
Leg
15
RangeRange
65Distance31
18Clinch13
28Ground35
McGregor
Nurmagomedov
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
2.0
0%
Takedown Accuracy
17%
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2:20
Control Time (this fight)
5:53
0
Reversals
0
McGregor
Nurmagomedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
100
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
69%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
92%
5/28 fights
Chin rating based on
5/29 fights
McGregor
Nurmagomedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
McGregor
Nurmagomedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
54%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McGregor
Nurmagomedov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
McGregorNurmagomedov
Strike Zones
McGregor
Attacking
111 landedAbsorbing
79 absorbedNurmagomedov
Attacking
79 landedAbsorbing
111 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McGregor targets the head (59% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (57% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McGregor
RND
Nurmagomedov
49/74R136/57
44/66R228/42
18/26R315/25
McGregor · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.1WinLossTrend
Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.9WinLossTrend
McGregor · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 530 · 2032-02
W · KO · R1
Justin GaethjeRating 7.2KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 528 · 2032-02
L · Dec · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 526 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 523 · 2032-01
L · Sub · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 519 · 2031-12
Nurmagomedov · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Conor McGregorRating 8Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 530 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 529 · 2032-02
W · Sub · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 527 · 2032-02
W · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 524 · 2032-01
L · Dec · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 520 · 2031-12
Fight Videos
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
McGregor
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-02
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01
McGregor
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-01
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-02
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-02
Nurmagomedov
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-01