METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 531
Las Vegas, USA
6 Mar 2032
Featherweight
VS
48%
Holloway
52%
Volkanovski
Win Probability
KO/TKO · Punches
Round 3 · 4:18
★ Official Result
Max HollowaywinsKO/TKOR3 · 4:18
def. Alexander Volkanovski · UFC Fight Night 531
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Volkanovski
→
Actual result
Holloway wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Holloway at 48% vs Volkanovski at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Holloway throws more volume but Volkanovski connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Volkanovski has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HollowayVolkanovski
139
Sig. Strikes
121
11.1
Strikes / min (SLpM)
9.7
66%
Strike Accuracy
65%
2:40
Control Time
3:10
Holloway
Volkanovski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'6"
67"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holloway
Volkanovski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.4
64.0
61.2
Performance Avg
59.8
54
Quality of Victory
44
63
Momentum Score
100
Holloway
Volkanovski
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
11.5
9.6
66%
Strike Accuracy
66%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
83
Head
73
34
Body
30
22
Leg
18
RangeRange
83Distance61
24Clinch22
32Ground38
Holloway
Volkanovski
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
1.2
0%
Takedown Accuracy
17%
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
2:40
Control Time (this fight)
3:10
0
Reversals
0
Holloway
Volkanovski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
54
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
59%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
73%
3/33 fights
Chin rating based on
4/30 fights
Holloway
Volkanovski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
100
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Holloway
Volkanovski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
52%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holloway
Volkanovski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
HollowayVolkanovski
Strike Zones
Holloway
Attacking
139 landedAbsorbing
121 absorbedVolkanovski
Attacking
121 landedAbsorbing
139 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (60% of attacks) — Volkanovski absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Volkanovski targets the head (60% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holloway
RND
Volkanovski
52/80R161/93
67/98R248/74
20/33R312/19
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.2WinLossTrend
Volkanovski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Holloway · Last 3
L · Sub · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 6.4Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 532 · 2032-03
W · KO · R3
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 531 · 2032-03
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
Volkanovski · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 7.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 533 · 2032-03
L · KO · R3
Max HollowayRating 5.2KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 531 · 2032-03
L · KO · R2
Ilia TopuriaRating 4.5KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
Fight Videos
Holloway
L
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-03
Holloway
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-03
Holloway
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2024-10
Volkanovski
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-03
Volkanovski
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-03
Volkanovski
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2024-02
Volkanovski
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2023-10