METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 533
Las Vegas, USA
20 Mar 2032
Featherweight
VS
44%
Volkanovski
56%
Topuria
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ilia TopuriawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Alexander Volkanovski · UFC Fight Night 533
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Topuria
→
Actual result
Topuria wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Volkanovski at 44% vs Topuria at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Topuria has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Striking split: Volkanovski throws more volume but Topuria connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Volkanovski's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
VolkanovskiTopuria
147
Sig. Strikes
144
9.8
Strikes / min (SLpM)
9.6
68%
Strike Accuracy
67%
1 (14%)
Takedowns
1 (14%)
4:49
Control Time
4:35
Volkanovski
Topuria
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
72"+
Reach
70"
37
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Volkanovski
Topuria
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.0
82.5
59.8
Performance Avg
77.8
44
Quality of Victory
63
100
Momentum Score
100
Volkanovski
Topuria
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.6
9.2
66%
Strike Accuracy
68%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
89
Head
87
35
Body
35
23
Leg
22
RangeRange
75Distance73
26Clinch24
46Ground47
Volkanovski
Topuria
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
1.9
17%
Takedown Accuracy
22%
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
4:49
Control Time (this fight)
4:35
0
Reversals
0
Volkanovski
Topuria
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
100
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
73%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
54%
4/30 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Volkanovski
Topuria
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Volkanovski
Topuria
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
78%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Volkanovski
Topuria
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
VolkanovskiTopuria
Strike Zones
Volkanovski
Attacking
147 landedAbsorbing
144 absorbedTopuria
Attacking
144 landedAbsorbing
147 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Volkanovski targets the head (61% of attacks) — Topuria absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Topuria targets the head (60% of attacks) — Volkanovski absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Volkanovski
RND
Topuria
51/75R153/81
45/65R253/77
51/75R338/57
Volkanovski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Topuria · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.5WinLossTrend
Volkanovski · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 7.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 533 · 2032-03
L · KO · R3
Max HollowayRating 5.2KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 531 · 2032-03
L · KO · R2
Ilia TopuriaRating 4.5KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
Topuria · Last 4
W · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 533 · 2032-03
W · Sub · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.7Submission · Rear Naked Choke
UFC Fight Night 532 · 2032-03
W · KO · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.5KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.6KO/TKO · Punches
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Fight Videos
Volkanovski
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-03
Volkanovski
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-03
Volkanovski
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2024-02
Volkanovski
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2023-10
Topuria
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-03
Topuria
W
vs TBC
Submission · 2032-03
Topuria
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2024-10
Topuria
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2024-02