METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 537
Las Vegas, USA
17 Apr 2032
Welterweight
VS
59%
Edwards
41%
Burns
Win Probability
KO/TKO · Punches
Round 3 · 1:13
★ Official Result
Leon EdwardswinsKO/TKOR3 · 1:13
def. Gilbert Burns · UFC Fight Night 537
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Edwards
→
Actual result
Edwards wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Edwards at 59% vs Burns at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Edwards throws more volume but Burns connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Burns has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EdwardsBurns
112
Sig. Strikes
106
9.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
8.5
68%
Strike Accuracy
70%
1 (25%)
Takedowns
3 (30%)
3:33
Control Time
6:28
Edwards
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
72"
34+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Edwards
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
39.8
51.1
Performance Avg
48.1
36
Quality of Victory
40
95
Momentum Score
28
Edwards
Burns
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.9
8.5
66%
Strike Accuracy
67%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
66
Head
63
27
Body
25
19
Leg
18
RangeRange
61Distance49
16Clinch16
35Ground41
Edwards
Burns
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.2
1.4
3%
Takedown Accuracy
21%
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
3:33
Control Time (this fight)
6:28
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
82%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
74%
5/25 fights
Chin rating based on
3/27 fights
Edwards
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
28
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Edwards
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
53%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Burns
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
EdwardsBurns
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
112 landedAbsorbing
106 absorbedBurns
Attacking
106 landedAbsorbing
112 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (59% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the head (59% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 59% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Burns
49/73R143/64
37/54R247/65
26/37R316/23
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.2WinLossTrend
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Edwards · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 537 · 2032-04
L · Dec · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 536 · 2032-04
W · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.7KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 535 · 2032-04
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Covington · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Burns · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 540 · 2032-05
W · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 539 · 2032-05
L · KO · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 537 · 2032-04
Fight Videos
Edwards
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-04
Edwards
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-04
Edwards
W
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-04
Edwards
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2024-07
Burns
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-05
Burns
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-05
Burns
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-04