METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 538
Las Vegas, USA
24 Apr 2032
Welterweight
VS
51%
Usman
49%
Covington
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 65
★ Official Result
Colby CovingtonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Kamaru Usman · UFC Fight Night 538
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Usman
→
Actual result
Covington wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Usman at 51% vs Covington at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Usman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Covington throws more volume but Usman connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
UsmanCovington
121
Sig. Strikes
126
8.1
Strikes / min (SLpM)
8.4
66%
Strike Accuracy
61%
1 (8%)
Takedowns
1 (10%)
5:07
Control Time
3:47
Usman
Covington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
70"
39
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Usman
Covington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.7
62.4
71.4
Performance Avg
55.0
63
Quality of Victory
45
55
Momentum Score
100
Usman
Covington
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.9
8.5
66%
Strike Accuracy
62%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
72
Head
73
30
Body
31
19
Leg
22
RangeRange
57Distance63
20Clinch25
44Ground38
Usman
Covington
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
1.6
11%
Takedown Accuracy
16%
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
5:07
Control Time (this fight)
3:47
0
Reversals
0
Usman
Covington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
60
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
120%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
92%
3/23 fights
Chin rating based on
5/22 fights
Usman
Covington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Usman
Covington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
42%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Usman
Covington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
UsmanCovington
Strike Zones
Usman
Attacking
121 landedAbsorbing
126 absorbedCovington
Attacking
126 landedAbsorbing
121 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Usman targets the head (60% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Covington targets the head (58% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Usman
RND
Covington
36/55R140/68
44/69R246/74
41/60R340/63
Usman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Usman · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 539 · 2032-05
L · Dec · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 538 · 2032-04
L · KO · R2
Leon EdwardsRating 3.9KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 535 · 2032-04
Covington · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 540 · 2032-05
W · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 538 · 2032-04
W · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 536 · 2032-04
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Covington · 2024-07
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Fight Videos
Usman
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-05
Usman
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-04
Usman
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-04
Covington
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-05
Covington
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-04
Covington
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-04
Covington
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2024-07