METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 539
Las Vegas, USA
1 May 2032
Welterweight
VS
62%
Usman
38%
Burns
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 65
★ Official Result
Gilbert BurnswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Kamaru Usman · UFC Fight Night 539
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Usman
→
Actual result
Burns wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Usman holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Burns has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Usman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Burns has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Burns has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
UsmanBurns
133
Sig. Strikes
127
8.9
Strikes / min (SLpM)
8.5
68%
Strike Accuracy
64%
2 (18%)
Takedowns
0 (0%)
5:50
Control Time
3:55
Usman
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
72"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Usman
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.7
39.8
71.4
Performance Avg
48.1
63
Quality of Victory
40
55
Momentum Score
28
Usman
Burns
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.9
8.5
66%
Strike Accuracy
67%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
80
Head
76
32
Body
31
21
Leg
20
RangeRange
63Distance60
22Clinch20
48Ground47
Usman
Burns
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
1.4
11%
Takedown Accuracy
21%
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
5:50
Control Time (this fight)
3:55
0
Reversals
0
Usman
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
120%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
74%
3/23 fights
Chin rating based on
3/27 fights
Usman
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
28
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Usman
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
53%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Usman
Burns
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
UsmanBurns
Strike Zones
Usman
Attacking
133 landedAbsorbing
127 absorbedBurns
Attacking
127 landedAbsorbing
133 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Usman targets the head (60% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the head (60% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Usman
RND
Burns
38/57R142/65
48/68R244/68
47/70R341/65
Usman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Usman · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 539 · 2032-05
L · Dec · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 538 · 2032-04
L · KO · R2
Leon EdwardsRating 3.9KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 535 · 2032-04
Burns · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 540 · 2032-05
W · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 539 · 2032-05
L · KO · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 537 · 2032-04
Fight Videos
Usman
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-05
Usman
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-04
Usman
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-04
Burns
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-05
Burns
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-05
Burns
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-04