METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night 540
Las Vegas, USA
8 May 2032
Welterweight
VS
61%
Covington
39%
Burns
Win Probability
Decision · Unanimous
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Colby CovingtonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Gilbert Burns · UFC Fight Night 540
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Covington
→
Actual result
Covington wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Covington holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Burns has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Burns has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Covington's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Burns has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CovingtonBurns
134
Sig. Strikes
128
8.9
Strikes / min (SLpM)
8.5
61%
Strike Accuracy
67%
0 (0%)
Takedowns
1 (20%)
3:20
Control Time
4:56
Covington
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
+72"
38+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Covington
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.4
39.8
55.0
Performance Avg
48.1
45
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
28
Covington
Burns
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.5
8.5
62%
Strike Accuracy
67%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
77
Head
77
33
Body
31
24
Leg
20
RangeRange
68Distance61
26Clinch20
40Ground47
Covington
Burns
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
1.4
16%
Takedown Accuracy
21%
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
3:20
Control Time (this fight)
4:56
0
Reversals
0
Covington
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
92%
Fade index (R3÷R1 output)
74%
5/22 fights
Chin rating based on
3/27 fights
Covington
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
28
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Covington
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
53%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Covington
Burns
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
CovingtonBurns
Strike Zones
Covington
Attacking
134 landedAbsorbing
128 absorbedBurns
Attacking
128 landedAbsorbing
134 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Covington targets the head (57% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the head (60% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Covington
RND
Burns
45/75R144/66
44/67R246/66
45/77R338/58
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Covington · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 540 · 2032-05
W · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 538 · 2032-04
W · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 536 · 2032-04
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Covington · 2024-07
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision · Unanimous
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Burns · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 6.9Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 540 · 2032-05
W · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 6Decision · Unanimous
UFC Fight Night 539 · 2032-05
L · KO · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1KO/TKO · Punches
UFC Fight Night 537 · 2032-04
Fight Videos
Covington
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-05
Covington
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-04
Covington
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-04
Covington
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2024-07
Burns
L
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-05
Burns
W
vs TBC
Decision · 2032-05
Burns
L
vs TBC
KO/TKO · 2032-04