Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Los Angeles, USA

19 Sept 2026

Bantamweight

50%

Vera

50%

Jourdain

Win Probability

Marlon Vera

"Chito"

23 – 12

5'8"70" reachSwitch33 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 51

Charles Jourdain

"Air"

18 – 8

Well-Rounded3-fight win streak30 yrsSwitch69" reach5'9"

CFR 50

Marlon

Vera

5 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Vera

Marlon Vera has lost four in a row without being finished once, and Charles Jourdain has won three straight without anyone noticing.

Marlon Vera's last four fights have all gone to the scorecards and he has lost all four. That is a specific kind of decline, and it is not the same as being finished: David Martinez outpointed him in February, Aiemann Zahabi in October 2025, Deiveson Figueiredo in August 2024, and Sean O'Malley over five rounds in a title fight in March 2024. Nobody has hurt him. Everybody has out-worked him. The…

Vera intel

Vera (23-12-1) has lost four straight, all by decision — David Martinez in February, Aiemann Zahabi in October 2025, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Sean O'Malley over five rounds. His last recorded win was over Pedro Munhoz in August 2023. A 78.0 chin rating and a 39.0 momentum score sum him up: hard to finish, no longer winning.

Jourdain intel

Jourdain (18-8-1) has won three in a row, outpointing Kyler Phillips in April 2026 after submitting Davey Grant in the first round and Victor Henry in the second. His 4.44 submission score is the highest here. The concern is a 56.0 chin rating and a second-round knockout loss to Jean Silva in 2024.

Key angles

Vera's 3.29 volume against a fighter who has out-worked better men — the same route that beat him four times

Jourdain's 4.44 submission score against a 2.67, and two submissions in his last three

A 78.0 chin rating against 56.0 if the fight is still competitive in the third

Vera's 45.5 quality-of-victory is still the higher figure — he has been losing to a better class of opponent

One point of composite rating separates them, which is no separation at all

Risk flags

Vera has never been finished across this losing run and is famously dangerous late

Jourdain's 56.0 chin rating gives him little room if Vera lands the kind of shot his 0.73 finish rate was built on

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Vera

Jourdain

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'8"

Height

+5'9"

70"+

Reach

69"

Age

+30

Switch

Stance

Switch

Vera

Jourdain

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

51.4

50.4

Performance Avg

48.6

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Vera

Jourdain

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

5.8

/ 10

3.4

/ 10

6.9

Style: Pressure

6.3

3.3

Style: Volume

3.8

7 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Vera

Jourdain

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

2.8

/ 10

4.4

/ 10

1.9

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.0

2.7

Submission Style (/10)

4.4

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Vera

Jourdain

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

4 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

27/35 fights

Chin rating based on

18/26 fights

Vera

Jourdain

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

4-fight 📉 slide

Current form

3-fight 🔥 win streak

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R5

Last 5

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R1

W · Sub · R2

L · KO · R2

Vera

Jourdain

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

73%

67%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Vera

Jourdain

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.8

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.4

2.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.4

1.9

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.0

2.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

4.4

6.9

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.3

3.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

3.8

Vera

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Jourdain

Vera

Attacking

589 landed

Absorbing

535 absorbed

Jourdain

Attacking

455 landed

Absorbing

254 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Vera targets the head (64% of attacks) — Jourdain absorbs 64% of strikes there

🎯Jourdain targets the head (62% of attacks) — Vera absorbs 66% of strikes there

Vera · Last 5

Upcoming

Charles Jourdain

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09

L · Dec · R3

David Martinez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02

L · Dec · R3

Aiemann Zahabi

Decision

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10

L · Dec · R3

Deiveson Figueiredo

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08

L · Dec · R5

Sean O'Malley

Decision

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03

Jourdain · Last 5

Upcoming

Marlon Vera

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09

W · Dec · R3

Kyler Phillips

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04

W · Sub · R1

Davey Grant

Submission

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10

W · Sub · R2

Victor Henry

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11

L · KO · R2

Jean Silva

KO/TKO

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

News & Media

Marlon Vera · Charles Jourdain

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Charles

Jourdain

5 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG