Rafael Dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Salt Lake City, USA

3 Oct 2026

Lightweight

45%

Anjos

55%

Hernandez

Win Probability

Rafael Dos Anjos

32 – 17

5'8"70" reachSouthpaw41 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 43

Alexander Hernandez

"El Gran Chango"

18 – 9

Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'9"

CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Hernandez

A former champion returns at 41 after two years away, three straight defeats and a chin rating of zero — against a man whose own rates 14.

Rafael dos Anjos was the UFC lightweight champion in 2015. He is 41, he turns 42 three weeks after this fight, and the last thing that happened to him in a cage was Geoff Neal knocking him out in ninety seconds in October 2024. He has not fought since. There have been public calls for him to retire rather than take this booking, and the numbers do not argue against them. His composite rating is 4…

Anjos intel

Dos Anjos (32-17) has lost three in a row and has not competed since Geoff Neal knocked him out in the first round in October 2024. He turns 42 in late October. His 0.0 chin rating and 49.0 momentum score are the two lowest figures in this matchup; his 3.28 grappling and 2.38 submission are the two highest he brings.

Hernandez intel

Hernandez (18-9) is 4-1 in his last five, with second- and first-round knockouts of Diego Ferreira and Chase Hooper in 2025, before losing a decision to Rafa Garcia in April 2026. His 90.0 momentum is the strongest number on either side. His 14.0 chin rating is the reason he is never comfortable to back.

Key angles

Dos Anjos' 0.0 chin rating and a two-year layoff at 41 years old

Hernandez's 14.0 chin rating means one dos Anjos counter still ends the night

The grappling gap — 3.28 to 1.20 — is dos Anjos' only route and requires him to close distance

A five-centimetre reach edge and eight-year age edge for Hernandez

Southpaw versus orthodox, and dos Anjos has not solved that puzzle in competition since 2024

Risk flags

Hernandez's own chin is bad enough that no lead is safe — Rafa Garcia and Damon Jackson both showed he can be out-thought as well as out-fought

Former champions with dos Anjos' grappling pedigree have won fights like this on one takedown; writing him off entirely has cost people before

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Anjos

Hernandez

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'8"

Height

+5'9"

70"

Reach

+72"

Age

+33

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Anjos

Hernandez

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

43.1

52.9

47.7

Performance Avg

47.4

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Anjos

Hernandez

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

3.1

/ 10

6.1

/ 10

4.8

Style: Pressure

5.2

5.7

Style: Volume

5.1

4 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

5 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Anjos

Hernandez

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

3.3

/ 10

1.2

/ 10

2.3

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.8

2.4

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Anjos

Hernandez

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.5 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

1 fight ago

Last KO loss

9 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

37/49 fights

Chin rating based on

19/27 fights

Anjos

Hernandez

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 📉 slide

Current form

Upcoming

L · KO · R1

L · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R5

W · Sub · R2

Last 5

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

Anjos

Hernandez

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

43%

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Anjos

Hernandez

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.1

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

6.1

3.3

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.2

2.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.8

2.4

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

4.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.2

5.7

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.1

Anjos

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Hernandez

Anjos

Attacking

514 landed

Absorbing

504 absorbed

Hernandez

Attacking

335 landed

Absorbing

398 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Anjos targets the head (66% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 66% of strikes there

🎯Hernandez targets the head (66% of attacks) — Anjos absorbs 71% of strikes there

Anjos · Last 5

Upcoming

Alexander Hernandez

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · 2026-10

L · KO · R1

Geoff Neal

KO/TKO

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10

L · Dec · R3

Mateusz Gamrot

Decision

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03

L · Dec · R5

Vicente Luque

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08

W · Sub · R2

Bryan Barberena

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12

Hernandez · Last 5

Upcoming

Rafael Dos Anjos

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · 2026-10

L · Dec · R3

Rafa Garcia

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04

W · KO · R2

Diego Ferreira

KO/TKO

Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09

W · KO · R1

Chase Hooper

KO/TKO

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08

W · Dec · R3

Kurt Holobaugh

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03

News & Media

Rafael Dos Anjos · Alexander Hernandez

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