Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Los Angeles, USA

19 Sept 2026

Lightweight

45%

Moicano

55%

Ortega

Win Probability

Renato Moicano

21 – 7

5'11"72" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 50

Brian Ortega

"T-City"

16 – 5

Pressure Fighter2-fight slide35 yrsSwitch69" reach5'8"

CFR 62

Renato

Moicano

6 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Ortega

Two of the best submission games in the sport meet, and the deciding number is a chin rating of six.

This is a fight between two men who have spent their careers turning scrambles into finishes, and the metrics agree with each other to an uncomfortable degree. Renato Moicano's submission score is 5.38, Brian Ortega's 5.00. Moicano's grappling is 5.05, Ortega's 4.30. Wrestling: 3.53 against 3.01. Pressure: 6.26 against 7.97. There is no stylistic escape hatch here — both of them want the same figh…

Moicano intel

Moicano (21-7-1) submitted Chris Duncan in the second round in April 2026, and before that lost a decision to Beneil Dariush and was submitted by Islam Makhachev in the first round of a title fight. His 5.38 submission score is the highest here; his chin rating of 6.0 is the alarming one.

Ortega intel

Ortega (16-5) has gone 1-4 across his last five, losing decisions to Aljamain Sterling in August 2025 and Diego Lopes in September 2024. The exception is a third-round submission of Yair Rodriguez in 58 seconds. A 0.88 finish rate and a 62.1 composite, but over a year of recorded inactivity.

Key angles

A 6.0 chin rating for Moicano in a fight that will spend time standing

Submission scores of 5.38 and 5.00 — nobody has a grappling advantage worth planning around

Ortega's year-plus of recorded inactivity against a man who won in April

Nearly eight centimetres of reach for Moicano at 182.9cm against 175.3cm

Ortega's 0.88 finish rate against Moicano's 0.61 — who is likelier to end it if the chance comes

Risk flags

Moicano is the more active and the bigger man, and his April submission win was the cleanest recent performance by either

Ortega's layoff is long enough that the 62.1 composite may be describing a fighter who no longer exists

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Moicano

Ortega

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"+

Height

5'8"

72"+

Reach

69"

Age

+35

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

Moicano

Ortega

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

50.3

62.1

51.7

Performance Avg

53.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Moicano

Ortega

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

2.1

/ 10

5.0

/ 10

6.3

Style: Pressure

8.0

3.8

Style: Volume

2.2

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

3 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Moicano

Ortega

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

5.0

/ 10

4.3

/ 10

3.5

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.0

5.4

Submission Style (/10)

5.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Moicano

Ortega

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

2 consec. KOs

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.3 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

11 fights ago

Last KO loss

4 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

21/28 fights

Chin rating based on

15/21 fights

Moicano

Ortega

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

Upcoming

W · Sub · R2

L · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R1

W · R2

Last 5

Upcoming

L · Dec · R5

L · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R3

L · KO · R1

Moicano

Ortega

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

62%

88%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Moicano

Ortega

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.1

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

5.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.3

3.5

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.0

5.4

Submission

Submission attack frequency

5.0

6.3

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

8.0

3.8

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

2.2

Moicano

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Ortega

Moicano

Attacking

351 landed

Absorbing

302 absorbed

Ortega

Attacking

273 landed

Absorbing

444 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Moicano targets the head (77% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 74% of strikes there

🎯Ortega targets the head (79% of attacks) — Moicano absorbs 64% of strikes there

Moicano · Last 5

Upcoming

Brian Ortega

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09

W · Sub · R2

Chris Duncan

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04

L · Dec · R3

Beneil Dariush

Decision

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06

L · Sub · R1

Islam Makhachev

Submission

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · R2

Benoit Saint Denis

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

Ortega · Last 5

Upcoming

Renato Moicano

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09

L · Dec · R5

Aljamain Sterling

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08

L · Dec · R3

Diego Lopes

Decision

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

W · Sub · R3

Yair Rodriguez

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

L · KO · R1

Yair Rodriguez

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07

News & Media

Renato Moicano · Brian Ortega

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Brian

Ortega

6 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG