UFC Freedom 250
Washington, USA
14 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
46%
Lopes
54%
Garcia
Win Probability
Diego
Diego Lopes
27 – 8
5'11"72" reachOrthodox31 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Steve
Steve Garcia
"Mean Machine"
19 – 5
Knockout Artist7-fight win streak34 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'0"
CFR 73

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Garcia

Diego Lopes and Steve Garcia clash on the UFC Freedom 250 card

Diego Lopes (27-8) meets Steve Garcia (19-5) in what promises to be a compelling matchup on the UFC Freedom 250 card. This is a striking battle between two fighters who prefer to keep the fight standing. This is a closely matched fight by the numbers, with both fighters carrying similar CFR ratings. The model gives Steve Garcia a 53.1% edge, but the medium-confidence rating suggests this could go…

Lopes intel

Diego Lopes (27-8) carries a CFR of 61.4 with a chin rating of 94 and momentum score of 69. Recent results have been mixed.

Garcia intel

Steve Garcia (19-5) carries a CFR of 72.5 with a chin rating of 76 and momentum score of 95. Currently on strong form.

Key angles

Steve Garcia's superior CFR rating indicates an overall talent advantage

Steve Garcia's striking superiority should control the stand-up game

Steve Garcia's high finish rate makes a stoppage likely

Steve Garcia's momentum advantage reflects superior recent form

Risk flags

This is a close fight — Diego Lopes has a legitimate path to victory

Diego Lopes's finishing ability means one clean shot could change everything

Lopes
Garcia
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+75"
31+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Lopes
Garcia
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
72.5
55.6
Performance Avg
65.0
48
Quality of Victory
55
69
Momentum Score
95
Lopes
Garcia
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.4
49%
Strike Accuracy
53%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Lopes
Garcia
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.3
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.2
Lopes
Garcia
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/35 fights
Chin rating based on
11/24 fights
Lopes
Garcia
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
69
95
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Lopes
Garcia
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
88%
3
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lopes
Garcia
Striking6.3 / 10.0Volume4.0 / 2.6Grappling2.1 / 0.3Wrestling1.5 / 0.2Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure6.7 / 8.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.6
Lopes
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Garcia
Lopes
Attacking
130HEAD20BODY17LEGS167 landed
Absorbing
159HEAD18BODY19LEGS196 absorbed
Garcia
Attacking
157HEAD28BODY10LEGS195 landed
Absorbing
38HEAD4BODY5LEGS47 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lopes targets the head (78% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Garcia targets the head (81% of attacks) — Lopes absorbs 81% of strikes there

Lopes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.2
0106.8L5.0W6.0W5.8W5.2W5.9W7.0L6.7W7.0L2023-052024-042025-042026-01
WinLossTrend

Garcia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5L5.2W1.8L5.8W5.5W6.5W5.2W5.1W5.0W5.8W2020-022022-102024-072025-11
WinLossTrend

Lopes · Last 5

Upcoming
Steve Garcia
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · KO · R2
Jean SilvaRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

Garcia · Last 5

Upcoming
Diego Lopes
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
David OnamaRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
SeungWoo ChoiRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07

News & Media

Diego Lopes · Steve Garcia
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