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UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Las Vegas, USA
26 Sept 2026
Bantamweight
VS
52%
Castaneda
48%
Win Probability
John
John Castaneda
"Sexi Mexi"
218
5'6"71" reachSwitch34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Alatengheili
Alatengheili
"The Mongolian Knight"
1710
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'5"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Castaneda

Two 34-year-olds, born four days apart, who have both been out for seventeen months and both lost the last time they worked.

John Castaneda and Alatengheili were born four days apart in December 1991, both last fought on 26 April 2025, and both lost. They return on the same night, seventeen months later, on the same card. It is a strangely exact piece of symmetry and it is also the main thing making this hard to call: neither man has been measured in a year and a half. Castaneda is the better fighter on the numbers. Hi…

Castaneda intel

Castaneda (21-8-1) has lost his last two — a decision to Chris Gutierrez at featherweight in April 2025 and one to Daniel Marcos, rated 61.0, in June 2024. He has not competed in seventeen months. His 2.50 submission score is the highest in this bout by a wide margin.

intel

Alatengheili (17-10-2) also last fought on 26 April 2025, losing a decision to Da'Mon Blackshear. He beat Chad Anheliger in September 2022 and Kleydson Rodrigues in May 2024. A 94.0 chin rating across eight recorded fights is his most reliable asset.

Key angles

Both men last fought on the same night, 26 April 2025 — seventeen months out for each

A 22-point chin-rating gap in Alatengheili's favour

Castaneda's 2.50 submission score against a flat 0.00

12.7cm of reach for Castaneda from a switch stance

Two fighters born four days apart, both 34, both on losing runs

Risk flags

Seventeen months of inactivity on both sides makes every rating here older than it looks

If Alatengheili drags this into the third at high volume, Castaneda's 72.0 chin is the thing that breaks first

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Castaneda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'5"
71"+
Reach
66"
34
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Castaneda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.0
46.2
43.2
Performance Avg
44.2
39
Quality of Victory
32
71
Momentum Score
49
Castaneda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.5
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
3.3
5.0
Style: Volume
7.7
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Castaneda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
1.9
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Castaneda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
94
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Strikes absorbed / min
10/29 fights
Chin rating based on
10/27 fights
Castaneda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
49
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Castaneda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Castaneda
Striking3.5 / 3.3Volume5.0 / 7.7Grappling3.2 / 1.9Wrestling2.2 / 1.3Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Castaneda
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Castaneda
Attacking
149HEAD41BODY49LEGS239 landed
Absorbing
166HEAD51BODY34LEGS251 absorbed
Attacking
81HEAD20BODY12LEGS113 landed
Absorbing
161HEAD41BODY33LEGS235 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Castaneda targets the head (62% of attacks) — absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯 targets the head (72% of attacks) — Castaneda absorbs 66% of strikes there

Castaneda · Last 5

Upcoming
Alatengheili
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09
Upcoming
Mark Vologdin
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris Gutierrez
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Daniel Marcos
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho Kang
Decision
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

· Last 5

Upcoming
John Castaneda
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09
L · Dec · R3
Da'Mon Blackshear
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Kleydson Rodrigues
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Chris Gutierrez
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Chad Anheliger
Decision
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09

News & Media

John Castaneda · Alatengheili
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