UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2026
Catchweight
VS
65%
Riley
35%
III
Win Probability
Luke
Luke Riley
13 – 0
5'9"69" reachOrthodox26 yrs2-fight win streakVolume Striker
CFR 71
Kai
Kai Kamaka III
"Da Fighting Hawaiian"
18 – 7
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Riley

A battle of contrasting styles as Luke Riley and Kai Kamaka III clash on the UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 card

Luke Riley (13-0) meets Kai Kamaka III (18-7) in what promises to be a compelling matchup on the UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 card. The classic striker-vs-grappler dynamic defines this matchup, with Luke Riley wanting to keep it standing and Kai Kamaka III looking to take it to the mat. The CFR gap tells a clear story — Luke Riley's rating significantly outpaces Kai Kamaka III's, suggesting a…

Riley intel

Luke Riley (13-0) carries a CFR of 70.7 with a chin rating of 100 and momentum score of 100. Currently on strong form.

III intel

Kai Kamaka III (18-7) carries a CFR of 37.8 with a chin rating of 76 and momentum score of 50. Has been struggling in recent outings.

Key angles

Luke Riley's superior CFR rating indicates an overall talent advantage

Luke Riley's striking superiority should control the stand-up game

Kai Kamaka III's chin vulnerability could be exploited

Luke Riley's momentum advantage reflects superior recent form

Risk flags

This is a close fight — Kai Kamaka III has a legitimate path to victory

Riley
III
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
69"
26+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Riley
III
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.7
37.8
64.0
Performance Avg
35.0
40
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
50
Riley
III
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
64%
Strike Accuracy
61%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Riley
III
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
Riley
III
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/13 fights
Chin rating based on
6/25 fights
Riley
III
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
50
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Riley
III
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Riley
III
Striking7.0 / 1.0Volume6.0 / 9.0Grappling1.2 / 2.4Wrestling0.8 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.5 / 1.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
Riley
Strike Zones
Career patterns
III
Riley
Attacking
31HEAD12BODY0LEGS43 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
III
Attacking
56HEAD56BODY7LEGS119 landed
Absorbing
105HEAD36BODY8LEGS149 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Riley targets the head (72% of attacks) — III absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯III targets the head (47% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 75% of strikes there

Riley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0106.2W5.6W2025-112026-03
WinLossTrend

III · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W3.2L5.5L4.5W2020-082020-112021-052026-04
WinLossTrend

Riley · Last 3

Upcoming
Kai Kamaka III
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Michael Aswell Jr.Rating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R2
Bogdan GradRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11

III · Last 5

Upcoming
Luke Riley
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Dakota HopeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
Upcoming
Danny Chavez
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · KO · R2
Jonathan PearceRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11

News & Media

Luke Riley · Kai Kamaka III
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