UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
42%
Rosa
58%
Santos
Win Probability
Karol
Karol Rosa
19 – 7
5'5"67" reachOrthodox31 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 49
Luana
Luana Santos
10 – 2
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak26 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'6"
CFR 69

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Santos

Karol Rosa and Luana Santos clash on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card

Karol Rosa (19-7) meets Luana Santos (10-2) in what promises to be a compelling matchup on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card. Both fighters bring well-rounded skillsets that should produce a technically interesting contest. The CFR gap tells a clear story — Luana Santos's rating significantly outpaces Karol Rosa's, suggesting a meaningful talent disparity. The model gives the favourite…

Rosa intel

Karol Rosa (19-7) carries a CFR of 48.8 with a chin rating of 92 and momentum score of 80. Recent results have been mixed.

Santos intel

Luana Santos (10-2) carries a CFR of 68.7 with a chin rating of 98 and momentum score of 100. Currently on strong form.

Key angles

Luana Santos's superior CFR rating indicates an overall talent advantage

The medium confidence rating suggests a predictable outcome

The model gives Luana Santos a 66.0% win probability

Risk flags

An off night or early adversity could shift the dynamic in Karol Rosa's favour

Rosa
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'6"
67"
Reach
67"
31
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rosa
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.8
68.7
41.7
Performance Avg
59.0
25
Quality of Victory
43
80
Momentum Score
100
Rosa
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.2
57%
Strike Accuracy
54%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Rosa
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rosa
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
92
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/26 fights
Chin rating based on
7/12 fights
Rosa
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Rosa
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rosa
Santos
Striking1.3 / 3.7Volume9.3 / 4.9Grappling2.4 / 4.2Wrestling1.7 / 2.9Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure2.0 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
2.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
9.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Rosa
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Santos
Rosa
Attacking
244HEAD57BODY96LEGS397 landed
Absorbing
159HEAD68BODY65LEGS292 absorbed
Santos
Attacking
64HEAD20BODY5LEGS89 landed
Absorbing
51HEAD19BODY8LEGS78 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rosa targets the head (61% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (72% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 54% of strikes there

Rosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W5.9W4.5W5.5L4.5W6.0L4.6W6.3L4.5W6.5L5.2W2019-082021-102023-042024-082025-08
WinLossTrend

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.2W5.5W5.3W6.7L5.7W5.6W2023-082023-122024-072024-082025-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Rosa · Last 5

Upcoming
Luana Santos
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Nora CornolleRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Ailin PerezRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Pannie KianzadRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Irene AldanaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

Santos · Last 5

Upcoming
Karol Rosa
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Melissa CrodenRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Sub · R2
Tainara LisboaRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Casey O'NeillRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · Sub · R1
Mariya AgapovaRating 5.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07

News & Media

Karol Rosa · Luana Santos
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