Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Las Vegas, USA

11 Jul 2026

Catchweight

51%

Royval

49%

Kavanagh

Win Probability

Brandon Royval

"Raw Dawg"

17 – 9

5'9"68" reachSouthpaw33 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 50

Lone'er Kavanagh

10 – 1

Well-Rounded27 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'6"

CFR 49

Brandon

Royval

12 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Royval

Royval's flyweight relevance is on the line against a surging Kavanagh who shocked the division by beating Brandon Moreno on short notice.

Brandon Royval finds himself at a crossroads. The No. 4-ranked flyweight has dropped consecutive fights to champion Joshua Van and rising contender Manel Kape, and at 33, a third straight loss could push 'Raw Dawg' out of the title picture permanently. Standing in his way is Lone'er Kavanagh, the 27-year-old Irish prospect who announced himself to the division with a short-notice victory over Bra…

Royval intel

Royval is 17-9, ranked No. 4, but on a two-fight skid against Van and Kape. At 33, this feels like a must-win to remain in the title conversation. Says he's taking this fight 'personally' — the motivation is there, but desperation can cut both ways.

Kavanagh intel

Kavanagh is 10-1 and ranked No. 5 after his stunning short-notice win over Moreno in February. At 27, time is on his side. His volume-first style wore Moreno down, and the Irish crowd at UFC 329 will give him a massive energy boost alongside McGregor.

Key angles

Royval's two-fight losing streak vs Kavanagh's surging momentum after Moreno upset

Chin disparity (78.0 vs 40.0) favours Kavanagh in a volume fight

Royval's submission game is his best path to victory against a volume-first opponent

Kavanagh has 0.0 finish rate — Royval is unlikely to be stopped but could be outworked

Irish crowd energy with McGregor headlining gives Kavanagh an atmospheric boost

Risk flags

Royval's championship-level scrambling and submission game could catch Kavanagh in a position he hasn't experienced before

Kavanagh has only one UFC fight — the Moreno win — against truly elite opposition, and Royval's experience edge is significant

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Royval

Kavanagh

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'9"+

Height

5'6"

68"+

Reach

67"

Age

+27

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Royval

Kavanagh

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

50.3

49.0

48.2

Performance Avg

45.0

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Royval

Kavanagh

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

2.1

0.8

43%

Strike Accuracy

49%

2.6

Striking Style Score (/10)

1.5

1 KOs

KO Finishes

0 KOs

Royval

Kavanagh

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

—

0.4

Sub Attempts / fight

0.2

4.5

Grappling Style Score (/10)

2.4

3.1

Wrestling Style Score (/10)

1.7

Royval

Kavanagh

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

1 fight ago

Last KO loss

2 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

13/26 fights

Chin rating based on

5/11 fights

Royval

Kavanagh

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

Upcoming

L · KO · R1

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R5

Last 5

Upcoming

W · Dec · R5

L · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

Royval

Kavanagh

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

57%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Royval

Kavanagh

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.5

4.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.4

3.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.7

4.3

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

5.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

2.3

4.6

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

9.5

Royval

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Kavanagh

Royval

Attacking

320 landed

Absorbing

241 absorbed

Kavanagh

Attacking

65 landed

Absorbing

63 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Royval targets the head (81% of attacks) — Kavanagh absorbs 49% of strikes there

🎯Kavanagh targets the head (62% of attacks) — Royval absorbs 66% of strikes there

Royval · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1

WinLossTrend

Kavanagh · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8

WinLossTrend

Royval · Last 5

Upcoming

Lone'er Kavanagh

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

L · KO · R1

Manel KapeRating 3.2

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12

L · Dec · R3

Joshua VanRating 7.1

Decision

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06

W · Dec · R5

Tatsuro TairaRating 6.2

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10

W · Dec · R5

Brandon MorenoRating 5.4

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

Kavanagh · Last 5

Upcoming

Brandon Royval

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

W · Dec · R5

Brandon MorenoRating 5.4

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02

L · KO · R2

Charles JohnsonRating 3.7

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08

W · Dec · R3

Felipe dos SantosRating 4.5

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

W · Dec · R3

Jose OchoaRating 5.4

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11

News & Media

Brandon Royval · Lone'er Kavanagh

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Lone'er

Kavanagh

12 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG