Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Las Vegas, USA

11 Jul 2026

Catchweight

47%

Whittaker

53%

Krylov

Win Probability

Robert Whittaker

"The Reaper"

27 – 9

6'0"73" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 53

Nikita Krylov

"The Miner"

31 – 11

Pressure Fighter34 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'3"

CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Krylov

The Reaper reborn — Whittaker's light heavyweight debut is a fresh start at 35, but Krylov's size and finishing instinct make it a dangerous baptism.

Robert Whittaker calling time on his middleweight career is one of the most significant divisional moves of 2026. After 15 wins, a championship reign, and a prolonged stay as one of the top three middleweights in the world, 'The Reaper' has decided the 185-pound cut was taking too much from him. 'The middleweight Rob Whittaker chapter has closed,' he told media this week. 'I'm very happy as a lig…

Whittaker intel

Whittaker is making his light heavyweight debut after a storied middleweight career. Says the weight cut was affecting his fight performances and he feels 'much more natural' at 205. At 35, this is a reinvention rather than a retirement tour. Has been training in Melbourne with natural light heavyweights to adjust to the size difference.

Krylov intel

Krylov is ranked No. 12 at light heavyweight, coming off a TKO win over Bukauskas in January 2026. The 34-year-old has gone 12-9 in the UFC — inconsistent but always dangerous. His finishing ability makes him a genuine threat against a fighter moving up in weight.

Key angles

Whittaker's light heavyweight debut — untested at 205 in the UFC

Both fighters have dangerously low chin ratings — this could end suddenly

Krylov's 10cm reach advantage is significant against a fighter moving up

Whittaker's speed and technical boxing vs Krylov's size and finishing power

Whittaker says the weight cut was 'affecting his fights' — the relief factor could be real

Risk flags

Whittaker's striking and speed could be the class difference if his chin holds up — his technical level is far above Krylov's recent opponents

First fight at light heavyweight is always unpredictable — Whittaker could be significantly better or worse than middleweight metrics suggest

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Whittaker

Krylov

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'0"

Height

+6'3"

73"

Reach

+77"

Age

+34

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Whittaker

Krylov

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

53.4

59.8

56.0

Performance Avg

52.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

100

Whittaker

Krylov

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

1.4

2.0

44%

Strike Accuracy

60%

5.0

Striking Style Score (/10)

5.3

6 KOs

KO Finishes

5 KOs

Whittaker

Krylov

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

—

Sub Attempts / fight

0.6

1.6

Grappling Style Score (/10)

3.7

1.1

Wrestling Style Score (/10)

2.6

Whittaker

Krylov

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.7 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.7 stoppage

5 fights ago

Last KO loss

2 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

25/36 fights

Chin rating based on

22/42 fights

Whittaker

Krylov

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

Upcoming

L · Dec · R5

L · Sub · R1

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

Upcoming

W · KO · R3

L · KO · R1

W · Sub · R1

Whittaker

Krylov

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

35%

83%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Whittaker

Krylov

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

5.3

1.6

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

3.7

1.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.6

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

4.2

4.6

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

7.5

6.6

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

2.5

Whittaker

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Krylov

Whittaker

Attacking

474 landed

Absorbing

367 absorbed

Krylov

Attacking

312 landed

Absorbing

155 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Whittaker targets the head (78% of attacks) — Krylov absorbs 83% of strikes there

🎯Krylov targets the head (64% of attacks) — Whittaker absorbs 66% of strikes there

Whittaker · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9

WinLossTrend

Krylov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6

WinLossTrend

Whittaker · Last 5

Upcoming

Nikita Krylov

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

L · Dec · R5

Reinier de RidderRating 6.5

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07

L · Sub · R1

Khamzat ChimaevRating 3.4

Submission

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10

W · KO · R1

Ikram AliskerovRating 6.7

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06

W · Dec · R3

Paulo CostaRating 5.5

Decision

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

Krylov · Last 5

Upcoming

Robert Whittaker

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

W · KO · R3

Modestas BukauskasRating 6.3

KO/TKO

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01

L · KO · R1

Bogdan GuskovRating 3.5

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07

L · KO · R1

Dominick ReyesRating 2.5

KO/TKO

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04

W · Sub · R1

Ryan SpannRating 5.4

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03

News & Media

Robert Whittaker · Nikita Krylov

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