METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Combatrics Intelligence
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The best submission grappler in the middleweight top five against a switch-stance striker who has won five in a row and has almost no grappling record at all.
This is the cleanest style clash the UFC has booked at middleweight this year, and it is being fought over five rounds because Christian Leroy Duncan has earned his first main event. The shape of it is not subtle. Brendan Allen's profile is a grappler's: 4.69 grappling, 4.67 submission, 3.28 wrestling, against a striking score of 2.91. Duncan's is the exact inverse — 7.85 striking against 0.90 gr…
Allen (26-7) is the #4-ranked middleweight and has won three straight — Shahbazyan by decision in June, de Ridder by fourth-round TKO in October, Vettori by decision in July 2025. Before that run he lost back-to-back decisions to Anthony Hernandez and Nassourdine Imavov. Composite 61.3, momentum 88.0, quality-of-victory 41.7, finish rate 0.60. His chin rating of 52.0 is the problem number.
Duncan (14-2) is ranked #10 and unbeaten in five, with decisions over Cannonier and Dolidze and knockouts of Tulio and Anders inside that run. His only recent defeat is a decision to Gregory Rodrigues in July 2024. Composite 63.4 — the higher of the two — with a 96.0 chin and a 45.0 quality-of-victory. This is his first UFC main event and his first scheduled five-rounder.
Allen's 52.0 chin rating against Duncan's 7.85 striking score and 200.7cm reach
Whether Duncan's takedown defence is real or simply untested — Dolidze is the only data point
Duncan's first five-round fight against a man who has already won one
Allen's 4.67 submission score as the only finish threat he needs to land once
A switch-stance striker forcing a grappler to solve two stances on the way in
Duncan's grappling scores are near-zero because he has never needed them, not necessarily because he cannot defend — the model may be over-reading the gap
Allen is the higher-ranked man and the model is picking against the ranking on a two-point composite margin
Neither man has fought a full five rounds recently; the last two rounds are close to a blank sheet for both
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Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10