UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
56%
Amil
44%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
Hyder
Hyder Amil
"The Hurricane"
11 – 2
5'9"70" reachSwitch35 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 58
Christian
Christian Rodriguez
"Ceerod"
12 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide28 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'7"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Amil

A battle of contrasting styles as Hyder Amil and Christian Rodriguez clash on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card

Hyder Amil (11-2) meets Christian Rodriguez (12-4) in what promises to be a compelling matchup on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card. The classic striker-vs-grappler dynamic defines this matchup, with Hyder Amil wanting to keep it standing and Christian Rodriguez looking to take it to the mat. This is a closely matched fight by the numbers, with both fighters carrying similar CFR rating…

Amil intel

Hyder Amil (11-2) carries a CFR of 57.7 with a chin rating of 76 and momentum score of 68. Recent results have been mixed.

Rodriguez intel

Christian Rodriguez (12-4) carries a CFR of 46.2 with a chin rating of 82 and momentum score of 64. Recent results have been mixed.

Key angles

Hyder Amil's superior CFR rating indicates an overall talent advantage

Hyder Amil's striking superiority should control the stand-up game

The medium confidence rating suggests a predictable outcome

The model gives Christian Rodriguez a 58.5% win probability

Risk flags

This is a close fight — Hyder Amil has a legitimate path to victory

Hyder Amil's finishing ability means one clean shot could change everything

Amil
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
+71"
35
Age
+28
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Amil
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.7
46.2
52.0
Performance Avg
40.7
47
Quality of Victory
31
69
Momentum Score
64
Amil
Rodriguez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
1.9
58%
Strike Accuracy
51%
7.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Amil
Rodriguez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
Amil
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
82
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/13 fights
Chin rating based on
10/16 fights
Amil
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
69
64
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Amil
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
20%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Amil
Rodriguez
Striking7.9 / 1.1Volume3.9 / 7.5Grappling0.8 / 3.5Wrestling0.6 / 2.5Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure6.5 / 3.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.5
Amil
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Rodriguez
Amil
Attacking
94HEAD28BODY17LEGS139 landed
Absorbing
50HEAD17BODY4LEGS71 absorbed
Rodriguez
Attacking
190HEAD27BODY16LEGS233 landed
Absorbing
105HEAD27BODY17LEGS149 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Amil targets the head (68% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (82% of attacks) — Amil absorbs 70% of strikes there

Amil · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.2W6.1W5.5W3.0L6.0L2024-022024-072025-032025-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0106.0L5.0W6.1W5.5W5.8W1.7L5.9W6.7L6.2L2022-022023-102025-012025-08
WinLossTrend

Amil · Last 5

Upcoming
Christian Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Jamall EmmersRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Jose DelgadoRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
William GomisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · KO · R1
JeongYeong LeeRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07

Rodriguez · Last 5

Upcoming
Hyder Amil
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Austin BashiRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Sub · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07

News & Media

Hyder Amil · Christian Rodriguez
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