UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
47%
Ziam
53%
Nolan
Win Probability
Fares
Fares Ziam
"The Smile Killer"
18 – 4
6'1"75" reachOrthodox29 yrs6-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Tom
Tom Nolan
"Big Train"
10 – 1
Well-Rounded4-fight win streak26 yrsSouthpaw73" reach6'3"
CFR 65

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Nolan

Fares Ziam and Tom Nolan clash on the UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim card

Fares Ziam (18-4) meets Tom Nolan (10-1) in what promises to be a compelling matchup on the UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim card. Both fighters bring well-rounded skillsets that should produce a technically interesting contest. This is a closely matched fight by the numbers, with both fighters carrying similar CFR ratings. The model gives Tom Nolan a 55.2% edge, but the medium-confidence rat…

Ziam intel

Fares Ziam (18-4) carries a CFR of 58.1 with a chin rating of 86 and momentum score of 91. Currently on strong form.

Nolan intel

Tom Nolan (10-1) carries a CFR of 65.0 with a chin rating of 78 and momentum score of 100. Currently on strong form.

Key angles

The medium confidence rating suggests a predictable outcome

The model gives Tom Nolan a 55.2% win probability

Risk flags

This is a close fight — Fares Ziam has a legitimate path to victory

Fares Ziam's superior durability could prove decisive in a war of attrition

Ziam
Nolan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
75"+
Reach
73"
29
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ziam
Nolan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.1
65.0
51.1
Performance Avg
56.6
32
Quality of Victory
41
91
Momentum Score
100
Ziam
Nolan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.2
55%
Strike Accuracy
48%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Ziam
Nolan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
Ziam
Nolan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/22 fights
Chin rating based on
6/11 fights
Ziam
Nolan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
100
6-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Ziam
Nolan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ziam
Nolan
Striking4.1 / 4.1Volume7.6 / 5.6Grappling1.8 / 3.2Wrestling1.3 / 2.2Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure4.2 / 5.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
7.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
Ziam
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Nolan
Ziam
Attacking
69HEAD15BODY20LEGS104 landed
Absorbing
37HEAD18BODY15LEGS70 absorbed
Nolan
Attacking
55HEAD42BODY19LEGS116 landed
Absorbing
46HEAD20BODY17LEGS83 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ziam targets the head (66% of attacks) — Nolan absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Nolan targets the head (47% of attacks) — Ziam absorbs 53% of strikes there

Ziam · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5L4.7W4.5W3.0L4.5W5.2W5.4W5.7W5.6W6.7W2019-092022-022024-022025-12
WinLossTrend

Nolan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.1L5.0W4.5W5.0W6.1W2024-012024-052024-082025-022025-09
WinLossTrend

Ziam · Last 5

Upcoming
Tom Nolan
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
Nazim SadykhovRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Mike DavisRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · KO · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Claudio PuellesRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

Nolan · Last 5

Upcoming
Fares Ziam
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Charlie CampbellRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Alex ReyesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · KO · R1
Victor MartinezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

News & Media

Fares Ziam · Tom Nolan
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