Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Las Vegas, USA

6 Jun 2026

Catchweight

47%

Ziam

53%

Nolan

Win Probability

Fares Ziam

"The Smile Killer"

18 – 4

6'1"75" reachOrthodox29 yrs6-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 58

Tom Nolan

"Big Train"

10 – 1

Well-Rounded4-fight win streak26 yrsSouthpaw73" reach6'3"

CFR 65

Fares

Ziam

2 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Nolan

A six-fight winner walks in as a slight underdog against an Australian prospect — the rankings math here does not add up in Nolan's favour long-term.

This is one of the more genuinely competitive fights on the card — two lightweights with legitimate winning streaks and stylistically interesting profiles meeting in a fight that will matter for rankings movement at 155. Fares Ziam is 'The Smile Killer' from France, 18-4, on a six-fight winning streak including a second-round stoppage of Nazim Sadykhov at UFC 323. He is a volume striker (7.6 outp…

Ziam intel

Ziam arrives on a six-fight streak and has been publicly dismissive of Nolan's level. He is a well-rounded striker who uses reach and volume effectively but does not carry significant finishing power — only a 0.25 finish rate. His approach will be to control distance and outwork Nolan over 15 minutes.

Nolan intel

Nolan is a physical specimen at 6'3" with genuine power and a four-fight UFC win streak. The Australian has been vocal about wanting ranked opponents and views Ziam as a stepping stone to the top 15. His camp has focused on counter-striking against Ziam's long-range game.

Key angles

Ziam's reach advantage and volume style versus Nolan's power and physical upside

Ziam's public dismissiveness could motivate Nolan to come in more aggressive than usual

Nolan's grappling threat as a secondary weapon Ziam has not prepared extensively for

Both fighters need a name-making win — the urgency level is identical

Risk flags

Ziam's six-fight winning form and experience edge could simply outwork a younger fighter

Nolan has not yet faced anyone approaching Ziam's UFC pedigree and the step up may expose gaps

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Ziam

Nolan

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'1"

Height

+6'3"

75"+

Reach

73"

Age

+26

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

Ziam

Nolan

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

58.1

65.0

51.1

Performance Avg

56.6

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

100

Ziam

Nolan

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

0.7

2.2

55%

Strike Accuracy

48%

4.1

Striking Style Score (/10)

4.1

2 KOs

KO Finishes

1 KOs

Ziam

Nolan

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

—

0.4

Sub Attempts / fight

—

1.8

Grappling Style Score (/10)

3.2

1.3

Wrestling Style Score (/10)

2.2

Ziam

Nolan

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

5 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

11/22 fights

Chin rating based on

6/11 fights

Ziam

Nolan

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

6-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

4-fight 🔥 win streak

Upcoming

W · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R3

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

Upcoming

W · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

Ziam

Nolan

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

25%

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ziam

Nolan

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

4.1

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

4.1

1.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

3.2

1.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.2

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

2.5

4.2

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.9

7.6

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.6

Ziam

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Nolan

Ziam

Attacking

104 landed

Absorbing

70 absorbed

Nolan

Attacking

116 landed

Absorbing

83 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Ziam targets the head (66% of attacks) — Nolan absorbs 55% of strikes there

🎯Nolan targets the head (47% of attacks) — Ziam absorbs 53% of strikes there

Ziam · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1

WinLossTrend

Nolan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5

WinLossTrend

Ziam · Last 5

Upcoming

Tom Nolan

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06

W · KO · R2

Nazim SadykhovRating 6.7

KO/TKO

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12

W · Dec · R3

Mike DavisRating 5.6

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02

W · KO · R3

Matt FrevolaRating 5.7

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

W · Dec · R3

Claudio PuellesRating 5.4

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

Nolan · Last 5

Upcoming

Fares Ziam

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06

W · Sub · R1

Charlie CampbellRating 6.1

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09

W · Dec · R3

Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5

Decision

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02

W · Dec · R3

Alex ReyesRating 4.5

Decision

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

W · KO · R1

Victor MartinezRating 5

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

News & Media

Fares Ziam · Tom Nolan

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Tom

Nolan

2 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG