Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

Las Vegas, USA

20 Jun 2026

Catchweight

52%

Kape

48%

Horiguchi

Win Probability

Manel Kape

"StarBoy"

22 – 7

5'5"68" reachSouthpaw32 yrs3-fight win streakKnockout Artist

CFR 70

Kyoji Horiguchi

"Karate Kid"

36 – 5

Well-Rounded5-fight win streak35 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'4"

CFR 64

Manel

Kape

1 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Kape

Nine years on, Kape wants revenge for the submission loss that haunted his early career.

When these two first met at RIZIN in December 2017, Horiguchi submitted Kape with an arm-triangle in the third round, a result that sent the Angolan back to the drawing board. Since then, Kape has rebuilt himself into one of the UFC flyweight division's most dangerous strikers, earning a ranking of No. 2 with a 71% finish rate that few 125-pounders can match. Horiguchi, for his part, has lost non…

Kape intel

Kape enters on a strong run after consecutive performances in the top-five range. His striking output is the most feared in the flyweight division and his finish rate of 71% backs that up. The main concern is his grappling defense when taken down by a specialist.

Horiguchi intel

Horiguchi arrives at a momentum score of 100, suggesting he is fighting at his very best. The 2017 submission win over Kape remains fresh in both men's minds, and he has shown no signs of ring rust. His veteran composure in championship-caliber bouts is a major asset.

Key angles

Can Kape avoid the takedown and make this a striking contest?

Horiguchi's grappling chain from clinch to trip to submission

Kape's power — one clean shot could change everything at 125 lbs

Momentum: Horiguchi is at career-peak form heading in

Risk flags

Horiguchi has already beaten Kape once and knows how to manage his striking

Kape's grappling defense remains a known weakness

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Kape

Horiguchi

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'5"+

Height

5'4"

68"+

Reach

63"

32+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Kape

Horiguchi

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

69.6

64.0

61.4

Performance Avg

56.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

100

Kape

Horiguchi

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

2.2

1.4

59%

Strike Accuracy

49%

8.5

Striking Style Score (/10)

4.0

5 KOs

KO Finishes

2 KOs

Kape

Horiguchi

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

0.7

/ 10

2.5

/ 10

0.5

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.7

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

1.1

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Kape

Horiguchi

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

11/29 fights

Chin rating based on

11/41 fights

Kape

Horiguchi

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

3-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

5-fight 🔥 win streak

Upcoming

W · KO · R1

W · KO · R3

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

Kape

Horiguchi

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

71%

33%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kape

Horiguchi

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

8.5

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

4.0

0.7

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.5

0.5

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.7

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.1

7.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.0

3.7

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

7.1

Kape

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Horiguchi

Kape

Attacking

270 landed

Absorbing

187 absorbed

Horiguchi

Attacking

215 landed

Absorbing

115 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Kape targets the head (69% of attacks) — Horiguchi absorbs 65% of strikes there

🎯Horiguchi targets the head (83% of attacks) — Kape absorbs 58% of strikes there

Kape · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8

WinLossTrend

Horiguchi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9

WinLossTrend

Kape · Last 5

Upcoming

Kyoji Horiguchi

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

W · KO · R1

Brandon RoyvalRating 5.8

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12

W · KO · R3

Asu AlmabayevRating 6.4

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03

W · KO · R3

Bruno SilvaRating 6.4

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12

L · Dec · R3

Muhammad MokaevRating 6.9

Decision

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

Horiguchi · Last 5

Upcoming

Manel Kape

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

W · Dec · R3

Amir AlbaziRating 5.8

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02

W · Sub · R3

Tagir UlanbekovRating 6.6

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11

W · Dec · R3

Ali BagautinovRating 4.5

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11

W · Dec · R3

Neil SeeryRating 4.5

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05

News & Media

Manel Kape · Kyoji Horiguchi

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Kyoji

Horiguchi

1 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG