UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
52%
Kape
48%
Horiguchi
Win Probability
Manel
Manel Kape
"StarBoy"
22 – 7
5'5"68" reachSouthpaw32 yrs3-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 70
Kyoji
Kyoji Horiguchi
"Karate Kid"
36 – 5
Well-Rounded5-fight win streak35 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'4"
CFR 64

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Kape

Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi clash on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card

Manel Kape (22-7) meets Kyoji Horiguchi (36-5) in what promises to be a compelling matchup on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card. Both fighters bring well-rounded skillsets that should produce a technically interesting contest. This is a closely matched fight by the numbers, with both fighters carrying similar CFR ratings. The model gives Manel Kape a 58.0% edge, but the low-confidence …

Kape intel

Manel Kape (22-7) carries a CFR of 69.7 with a chin rating of 94 and momentum score of 88. Currently on strong form.

Horiguchi intel

Kyoji Horiguchi (36-5) carries a CFR of 64.0 with a chin rating of 88 and momentum score of 100. Currently on strong form.

Key angles

Manel Kape's striking superiority should control the stand-up game

Manel Kape's high finish rate makes a stoppage likely

The low confidence rating suggests a close fight

The model gives Manel Kape a 58.0% win probability

Risk flags

This is a close fight — Kyoji Horiguchi has a legitimate path to victory

Kape
Horiguchi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
68"+
Reach
63"
32+
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Kape
Horiguchi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.6
64.0
61.4
Performance Avg
56.7
56
Quality of Victory
34
89
Momentum Score
100
Kape
Horiguchi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.4
59%
Strike Accuracy
49%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Kape
Horiguchi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.7
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kape
Horiguchi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
88
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/29 fights
Chin rating based on
11/41 fights
Kape
Horiguchi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
100
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Kape
Horiguchi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
33%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kape
Horiguchi
Striking8.5 / 4.0Volume3.7 / 7.1Grappling0.7 / 2.5Wrestling0.5 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 1.1Pressure7.1 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
7.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
Kape
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Horiguchi
Kape
Attacking
187HEAD44BODY39LEGS270 landed
Absorbing
108HEAD46BODY33LEGS187 absorbed
Horiguchi
Attacking
179HEAD27BODY9LEGS215 landed
Absorbing
75HEAD21BODY19LEGS115 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kape targets the head (69% of attacks) — Horiguchi absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Horiguchi targets the head (83% of attacks) — Kape absorbs 58% of strikes there

Kape · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0106.8L5.7L5.8W5.0W4.5W4.5W6.9L6.4W6.4W5.8W2021-022021-122024-072025-12
WinLossTrend

Horiguchi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.2W4.5W5.0W4.5W4.0L4.5W4.5W4.5W6.6W5.8W2013-102015-012016-052026-02
WinLossTrend

Kape · Last 5

Upcoming
Kyoji Horiguchi
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · KO · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · KO · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Muhammad MokaevRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

Horiguchi · Last 5

Upcoming
Manel Kape
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Amir AlbaziRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Sub · R3
Tagir UlanbekovRating 6.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Ali BagautinovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Neil SeeryRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05

News & Media

Manel Kape · Kyoji Horiguchi
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