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UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2026
Catchweight
VS
58%
Osbourne
42%
Durden
Win Probability
Ode
Ode Osbourne
"The Jamaican Sensation"
139
5'7"73" reachSouthpaw34 yrsStriker
CFR 51
Cody
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
1810
Well-Rounded35 yrsSouthpaw67" reach5'7"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Osbourne

Late replacement Costa steps in after Osbourne's withdrawal, taking on a Durden whose chin may not survive the exchange.

This fight changed complexion when Ode Osbourne withdrew due to injury in late June, with Alessandro Costa stepping in as a late replacement. Osbourne confirmed the withdrawal 'breaks his heart' after eight weeks of camp for the biggest stage of his career. Cody Durden now faces a different stylistic challenge. At 18-10 with a chin rating of just 4, Durden is one of the most hittable fighters on …

Osbourne intel

Costa is a late replacement for the injured Ode Osbourne, stepping in with limited preparation time. He brings knockout power and a willingness to engage on the feet. His preparation may be compromised by the short notice, but he's fighting a highly hittable opponent.

Durden intel

Durden is 18-10 with a chin rating of 4 — one of the lowest on either card. His momentum (54) is middling, and his striking (2.36) is limited. His best path to victory is through grappling (2.86), where he can avoid standing exchanges that expose his chin.

Key angles

Late replacement: Costa steps in for injured Osbourne with limited preparation

Durden's chin rating of 4 — catastrophically low for a UFC fighter

Durden's grappling (2.86) is his only viable path to victory

Card-opening fight that could set the tone for the evening

Risk flags

Costa's short-notice preparation could leave him physically or tactically unprepared

Durden's grappling could neutralise the striking threat entirely

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Osbourne
Durden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
73"+
Reach
67"
34+
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Osbourne
Durden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.3
37.8
43.7
Performance Avg
38.8
45
Quality of Victory
34
87
Momentum Score
54
Osbourne
Durden
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
41%
Strike Accuracy
45%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Osbourne
Durden
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
Osbourne
Durden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
4
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
Strikes absorbed / min
14/22 fights
Chin rating based on
17/28 fights
Osbourne
Durden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
54
Upcoming
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Osbourne
Durden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
29%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Osbourne
Durden
Striking6.8 / 2.4Volume4.0 / 6.7Grappling1.0 / 2.9Wrestling0.7 / 2.0Submission0.0 / 1.4Pressure5.5 / 3.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.4
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Osbourne
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Durden
Osbourne
Attacking
92HEAD29BODY9LEGS130 landed
Absorbing
98HEAD45BODY27LEGS170 absorbed
Durden
Attacking
143HEAD21BODY18LEGS182 landed
Absorbing
161HEAD37BODY45LEGS243 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Osbourne targets the head (71% of attacks) — Durden absorbs 66% of strikes there
🎯Durden targets the head (79% of attacks) — Osbourne absorbs 58% of strikes there

Osbourne · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0101.8L5.0W3.2L4.5W5.0W1.7L5.4W3.9L2.6L6.7L5.2W6.1L2020-012021-112023-022024-092025-08
WinLossTrend

Durden · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0102.0L5.3W2.9L5.0W4.5W5.4W5.2W3.8L3.6L5.4W7.1L3.7L4.3L6.6L5.6W2020-122022-102024-072025-112026-04
WinLossTrend

Osbourne · Last 5

Upcoming
Cody Durden
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
Upcoming
Alibi Idiris
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · KO · R2
Luis GuruleRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Ronaldo RodriguezRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

Durden · Last 5

Upcoming
Ode Osbourne
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Jafel FilhoRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Nyamjargal TumendemberelRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Sub · R2
Allan NascimentoRating 4.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
L · KO · R2
Jose OchoaRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06

News & Media

Ode Osbourne · Cody Durden
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