UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
44%
Souza
56%
Carnelossi
Win Probability
Ketlen
Ketlen Souza
"Esquentadinha"
16 – 6
5'3"63" reachOrthodox31 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 43
Ariane
Ariane Carnelossi
"Sorriso"
15 – 4
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox61" reach5'2"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Carnelossi

A battle of contrasting styles as Ketlen Souza and Ariane Carnelossi clash on the UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim card

Ketlen Souza (16-6) meets Ariane Carnelossi (15-4) in what promises to be a compelling matchup on the UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim card. The classic striker-vs-grappler dynamic defines this matchup, with Ariane Carnelossi wanting to keep it standing and Ketlen Souza looking to take it to the mat. This is a closely matched fight by the numbers, with both fighters carrying similar CFR ratin…

Souza intel

Ketlen Souza (16-6) carries a CFR of 42.9 with a chin rating of 84 and momentum score of 40. Has been struggling in recent outings.

Carnelossi intel

Ariane Carnelossi (15-4) carries a CFR of 54.8 with a chin rating of 84 and momentum score of 65. Recent results have been mixed.

Key angles

Ariane Carnelossi's superior CFR rating indicates an overall talent advantage

Ariane Carnelossi's striking superiority should control the stand-up game

Ariane Carnelossi's momentum advantage reflects superior recent form

Risk flags

This is a close fight — Ariane Carnelossi has a legitimate path to victory

Ariane Carnelossi's finishing ability means one clean shot could change everything

Souza
Carnelossi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"+
Height
5'2"
63"+
Reach
61"
31+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Souza
Carnelossi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.9
54.8
40.8
Performance Avg
47.1
35
Quality of Victory
45
40
Momentum Score
65
Souza
Carnelossi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.7
56%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Souza
Carnelossi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
Souza
Carnelossi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/22 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Souza
Carnelossi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
65
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Souza
Carnelossi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Souza
Carnelossi
Striking1.0 / 4.3Volume6.3 / 1.0Grappling4.3 / 2.7Wrestling3.0 / 1.9Submission3.3 / 3.3Pressure3.8 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
Souza
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Carnelossi
Souza
Attacking
58HEAD34BODY17LEGS109 landed
Absorbing
46HEAD26BODY24LEGS96 absorbed
Carnelossi
Attacking
39HEAD6BODY9LEGS54 landed
Absorbing
70HEAD19BODY6LEGS95 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Souza targets the head (53% of attacks) — Carnelossi absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Carnelossi targets the head (72% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 48% of strikes there

Souza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0102.7L4.5W5.3W5.6L6.3L4.5W2023-062024-042024-092025-022025-082026-02
WinLossTrend

Carnelossi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.6L5.2W5.5W6.0L5.0W5.2L2019-092021-042021-102022-052024-052025-11
WinLossTrend

Souza · Last 5

Upcoming
Ariane Carnelossi
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Bruna BrasilRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Piera RodriguezRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Angela HillRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Yazmin JaureguiRating 5.3
Submission
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

Carnelossi · Last 5

Upcoming
Ketlen Souza
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R3
Talita AlencarRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · R2
Piera RodriguezRating 5
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 6
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Sub · R3
Istela NunesRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10

News & Media

Ketlen Souza · Ariane Carnelossi
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